Market Wrap: Cryptos and Stocks Fall; Bitcoin Trades Below $40K

Most cryptocurrencies extended losses on Tuesday, tracking declines in stocks.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a downtrend over the past two weeks as traders await a decisive move above or below the $40,000 price level. For now, alternative cryptos (altcoins) have gone in and out of favor over the past month, indicating uncertainty among market participants.

Dogecoin (DOGE) declined by 8% over the past 24 hours, erasing some gains from Monday's rally. Shiba Inu's SHIB token, another dog-themed meme coin, declined by 4% over the same period. Meanwhile, bitcoin was down by 3% on Tuesday, and is on track for an 18% decline over the past 30 days.

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Stocks were also lower on Tuesday, giving back most of the late-March rally. Selling pressure has been dominant so far this year as investors reduced their exposure to both stocks and cryptos. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is approaching a one-year high, which has been a headwind for BTC's price.

Latest prices

●Bitcoin BTC$86,140.88: $38,279, −4.85%

●Ether ETH$2,939.48: $2,842, −5.78%

●S&P 500 daily close: $4,175, −2.81%

●Gold: $1,902 per troy ounce, +0.46%

●Ten-year Treasury yield daily close: 2.77%

Bitcoin, ether and gold prices are taken at approximately 4pm New York time. Bitcoin is the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX); Ether is the CoinDesk Ether Price Index (ETX); Gold is the COMEX spot price. Information about CoinDesk Indices can be found at coindesk.com/indices.

Short squeeze or breakdown?

Most analysts agree that bitcoin is set for a volatile price move, but the direction remains uncertain. Some indicators suggest a breakdown could occur, while others point to a short-term price bounce.

Currently, the options market places a 60% probability that BTC will trade above $36,000 in May.

In the bitcoin futures market, the average daily basis, or the difference between the spot price and futures price, reached a one-year low. Typically, a rising basis indicates bullish sentiment among futures traders.

"The basis has only reached similar lows on two prior occasions in the last year: in July, prior to the summer short squeeze, and in February. The July low coincided with the market bottoming, whereas the February low was followed by more consolidation in BTC," Arcane Research wrote in a Tuesday report.

Also, there are signs that futures traders are becoming more active. The open interest in BTC perpetuals is currently near a one-year high, after climbing steadily since early March, with more intensive growth in recent days," Arcane wrote.

Sentiment has been slightly bearish in the futures market, which could increase the chance of a short squeeze if BTC's price jumps unexpectedly.

On the flip side, technical indicators remain neutral, although some analysts are on watch for a possible breakdown in price.

"Bitcoin has a breakdown pending confirmation this week below $40,000," Katie Stockton, managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, wrote in a report. "If confirmed, risk would increase to secondary support near $27,200."

Altcoin roundup

• SUSHI 2.0: SushiSwap, the protocol behindSUSHI, was the darling of 2021, but the lack of operational efficiency and lack of focused attention towards the long term was evident in the second half of 2021. With the failed Frog Nation takeover, the remaining team was left to keep SushiSwap running with major question marks. Read more about the latest restructure here.
• Dogecoin, ApeCoin see higher-than-usual liquidations: Volatile trading on futures tracking the dogecoin (DOGE) and APE$0.2264 tokens resulted in millions of dollars in losses to liquidations, data from tracking tools shows. Losses on DOGE futures exceeded $34.26 million in the past 24 hours while losses on APE futures exceeded $10.82 million. The figures were higher than on other days, the data show. Read more here.
• NFL draft goes NFT: The National Football League (NFL) is once again dabbling with non-fungible tokens (NFT), launching a series of card-themed collectibles tied to its upcoming player draft on Thursday. The collection is live on the league’s Polygon-based marketplace, which it unveiled in November 2021 and has since been used for various playoff game ticketing promotions. The NFTs will also be given out to members of this year’s “Inner Circle” club, which includes fans selected to represent each team on draft night, according to CoinDesk’s Eli Tan. Read more here.

Relevant insight

• Listen 🎧: The CoinDesk Markets Daily podcast is back, documenting a use case for crypto that you can eat. 👨🏽‍🍳
• FalconX Tests Waters as First Full-Fledged Crypto Derivatives Dealer: The company's CEO is counting on others to follow.
• Buenos Aires City to Allow Residents to Make Tax Payments With Crypto: The crypto will be converted to Argentine pesos by crypto firms before being given to the city, said Mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta.
• MicroStrategy to Offer Workers Bitcoin Options in 401(k) Accounts via Fidelity: CEO Michael Saylor’s tweet comes the same day Fidelity said it will begin offering bitcoin investments in its 401(k) accounts later this year.
• Grayscale Eyeing Expansion Into European Crypto Fund Market: Report: Grayscale, a CoinDesk sister company, is meeting with local partners to discuss entering the European market, CEO Michael Sonnenshein said.
• Coinme Enters Its 49th State, Installing Bitcoin ATMs in Vermont Grocery Stores: A Coinme kiosk is now available within five miles of 90% of the American population.

Other markets

Most digital assets in the CoinDesk 20 ended the day lower.

Top Gainers

There are no gainers in CoinDesk 20 today.

Top Losers

Asset Ticker Returns Sector Dogecoin DOGE −13.2% Currency Ethereum Classic ETC −7.7% Smart Contract Platform EOS EOS −6.8% Smart Contract Platform

Sector classifications are provided via the Digital Asset Classification Standard (DACS), developed by CoinDesk Indices to provide a reliable, comprehensive and standardized classification system for digital assets. The CoinDesk 20 is a ranking of the largest digital assets by volume on trusted exchanges.