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Will Bitcoin Crash? Not Below $48K, Blockchain Data Suggests
Blockchain data might give traders comfort that prices aren't likely to revisit the end-of-2020 level anytime soon.
By Muyao Shen
Updated Sep 14, 2021, 12:24 p.m. Published Mar 10, 2021, 6:30 p.m.
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Bitcoin has often traded like a risky asset over the past few weeks – selling off along with U.S. stocks as bond yields rose, typically in response to nagging worries the Federal Reserve might step in to tighten monetary policy sooner than previously signaled.
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But a new analysis of data extracted from the Bitcoin blockchain suggests the risk of a steep sell-off might be capped on the downside by buyers who appear to enter the market whenever prices fall to about $48,000.
There are no signs that such a sell-off is brewing, with bitcoin's price rising Wednesday for a sixth straight day to a two-week high around $57,000. But the new analysis, by the South Korean blockchain-tracking firm CryptoQuant, might give traders comfort that prices aren't likely to revisit the end-of-2020 level of around $29,000 anytime soon.
“Speculative guess, but institutions would buy more if the price is falling," Ki Young Ju, CryptoQuant's CEO, told CoinDesk,
According to CryptoQuant, dips in bitcoin prices to about $48,000 over the past month coincided with unusually large withdrawals from wallet addresses linked to the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase's Coinbase Pro segment:
Those outflows “might be institutional deals through Coinbase's over-the-counter (OTC) service or Coinbase prime,” Ki said. The implication is that the institutional investors might be moving their bitcoins off Coinbase Pro into so-called "cold wallets," typically because they have little intention of selling anytime soon.
So far, $48,000 appears to be an attractive purchase price. Based on a price of $56,000, investors are sitting on returns of roughly 16%.
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KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.
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- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
- Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
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Bitcoin stuck near $88,000 as gold's and silver's record-breaking rallies show exhaustion signs
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- Bitcoin is off its worst levels of the weekend, but still near the year's low at $87,700.
- Facing the same news cycle as crypto, precious metals continued to surge higher, but a quick retreat from their highs on Monday suggested a bit of exhaustion was setting in.
- Analysts remain dour on the outlook for crypto prices given the looming government shutdown as well as delays in passage of the Clarity Act.
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