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Gold nears $5,000, silver closes on $100 while bitcoin remains listless
Prediction markets price further upside for bullion as volatility data shows silver absorbing momentum while gold grinds higher
Updated Jan 23, 2026, 4:47 a.m. Published Jan 23, 2026, 4:30 a.m.
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What to know:
- Gold and silver extended their January surge on Thursday, with gold trading near $4,950 an ounce and silver just under $99, capping monthly gains of more than 7 percent and nearly 30 percent, respectively.
- Prediction and month-end markets increasingly treat $5,000 gold and $100 silver as likely waypoints rather than peaks, with contracts heavily skewed toward prices at or above those levels.
- Volatility has jumped most sharply in silver, while gold’s more measured move and Bitcoin’s relatively subdued swings suggest investors are shifting their macro uncertainty bets toward precious metals.
Gold and silver extended their January rally on Thursday, pushing closer to key price milestones as bitcoin remained listles near $90,000. bitcoin traded flat at $89,930.
Spot gold traded near $4,950 per ounce, up about 2.5% on the day, while silver jumped more than 6% to just under $99. The gains cap a month of outsized performance for precious metals, with gold up more than 7% and silver higher by nearly 30%, far outpacing most major asset classes.
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Prediction markets suggest traders increasingly view those levels as stepping stones rather than ceilings. On Polymarket, contracts asking whether gold or ether will be first to reach $5,000 assign gold a 97% implied probability as ETH is trading under $3,000.
Separate month-end markets cluster heavily around outcomes that place gold at or above $5,000 by the end of January, with relatively little weight on materially lower prices. Silver markets show similar conviction, with strong odds assigned to prices finishing above $85 and substantial positioning for a move to $100.
Several prominent analysts expect more gains for precious metals. Recently, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2026 price for gold to $5,400 per ounce, up from $4,900.
For bitcoin, Polymarket traders are anticipating it remaining range-bound around $85,000 within January.
The volatility backdrop helps explain how the rally is being expressed. Silver’s 30-day realized volatility has surged into the high-60s, while gold’s realized volatility has risen, but remains comparatively contained in the low-20s, signaling a steadier and more orderly repricing rather than a disorderly squeeze.
Bitcoin, by comparison, has seen realized volatility compress into the mid-30s even as prices churn near recent highs, highlighting a shift in where markets are expressing macro uncertainty.
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