Bitcoin's next big test is breaking through $100,000: Asia Morning Briefing

Bitcoin held near $95,000 in early Hong Kong hours after a volatile rally earlier this week, with traders increasingly converging on one near-term expectation: a test of $100,000, but not a decisive breakout beyond it.

Prediction markets show a 54% probability that bitcoin reaches $100,000 in January, according to one contract on Polymarket, making it the most likely outcome by a wide margin. Odds fall sharply above that level, with just a 22% chance of $105,000 and an 8% chance of $110,000, suggesting traders expect momentum-driven probes rather than sustained upside.

Downside expectations have faded, with the probability of a move to $85,000 dropping to 15%.

Market makers describe the recent rally as largely mechanical. In a recent Telegram note, Flowdesk said bitcoin’s move above $95,000 was driven by a “violent short squeeze,” with call buyers stepping in as volatility spiked and skews shifted more bullish. ETF flows helped underpin the move, with more than $800 million of inflows, the highest level in three months, while improved top-of-book liquidity skewed toward bids across major venues.

Enflux framed the surge as an order-flow event rather than a macro repricing.

“Tests of $97,000 highlight reactive spikes absent broader catalysts,” Enflux wrote in a note to CoinDesk, adding that the current environment favors tactical positioning over committed directional bets.

Ether continued to show relative strength near $3,300, supported by yield demand, while funding rates remained steady and leverage appeared contained, reinforcing the view among market makers that $100,000 is a level to be tested, not yet conquered.

Market Movements

BTC: Bitcoin briefly surged above $97,000 during U.S. trading hours before fading back toward $95,000 as short liquidations gave way to resistance and profit-taking.

ETH: Ether outperformed bitcoin, holding near $3,300 as yield-driven demand supported prices despite broader market volatility.

Gold: Gold and silver edged lower in early U.S. trading as easing geopolitical fears around Iran and President Trump’s pledge not to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell tempered risk aversion

Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.52% on Friday, underperforming mixed Asia-Pacific markets that broke ranks with a Wall Street rally led by chip and bank stocks.

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