Bitcoin ETF optimism fades as three-day outflows streak erases early-month gains

Bitcoin BTC$66,350.94 ETFs kicked off 2026 with a bang, pulling in over $1 billion in the first two trading days, a sign, analysts said, of resurgent investor risk appetite. That narrative has crumbled fast, with a three-day outflow streak casting fresh doubt on BTC's price prospects.

The 11 U.S.-listed spot ETFs have cumulatively registered a net outflow of $1.128 billion in the past three days, according to data source Farside Investors. The three-day outflow streak has nearly wiped out the net inflow of $1.16 billion over the first two trading days of the year.

In other words, year-to-date inflows for Bitcoin ETFs sit nearly flat, with early optimism giving way to balance-sheet reality. These trends point to a lack of conviction among institutional players, and weaken the bullish prospects hinted at by early-month inflows.

"ETF flows paint a tactical picture, with periods of inflows followed by modest outflows. This indicates rotation rather than conviction buying," Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus exchange, told CoinDesk in an email.

"Macro conditions have also tightened risk appetite as traders look for positive macro cues. The broader risk-off sentiment has seeped into crypto alongside equity markets," he added.

The crypto market has become risk-averse amid ETF outflows, with BTC dropping to $90,000 from highs above $94,600 on Monday. At one point on Thursday, prices fell to lows below $89,300, CoinDesk data show. CoinDesk Indices tied to memecoins and DeFi tokens have also pulled back from Monday's highs.

The market volatility may pick up later Friday, following the release of the monthly U.S. jobs data and the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs.

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for December is scheduled for release on Friday at 13:30 UTC. The data could influence bets on a Fed rate cut and demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. While BTC is hailed as digital gold by many, historically, it has tracked movements in the Nasdaq closely.

According to FactSet, the data is expected to show the U.S. economy added 55,000 jobs in December, marking a decline from November's 64,000 gain and trailing the 12-month average of 77,800. The jobless rate is forecast to have dipped slightly to 4.5% from 4.6%. The average hourly earnings likely increased by 3.6% year-on-year, following November's 3.5%.

"A softer U.S. labor backdrop could support risk assets, while resilient employment data may keep crypto and broader markets range-bound into the week’s close," Iliya Kalchev, a Nexo Dispatch analyst, said in an email.