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Forget $80k: Michael Terpin warns bitcoin could revisit the $40,000s before a real recovery
Terpin argued that bitcoin’s post-halving bubble followed its typical arc and says history suggests the market may still face another wave of pain.
Updated Feb 12, 2026, 2:11 p.m. Published Feb 12, 2026, 12:25 p.m.
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What to know:
- Michael Terpin says the bull market peak came in the fourth quarter after the halving, in line with prior cycles.
- While dismissing $80,000 and $60,000 bottom calls as premature, he sees the potential for bitcoin to revisit the $50,000s or even $40,000s in a fragile market.
The current state of the crypto market is unfolding almost exactly as historical patterns would suggest, according to Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures
That’s why he was skeptical of recent overly optimistic bottom calls. “When people thought the bottom was going to be at $80,000 and that it would only be a six-week bear market, that seems ridiculous to me,” Terpin said at Consensus Hong Kong 2026 on Thursday.
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Predictions that bitcoin would bottom at $60,000 and immediately resume its climb struck him as premature. “That also seems a little too soon.”
While he stopped short of forecasting another year-long drawdown, Terpin believes the market likely faces “one more point of pain” in what he describes as a fragile environment. He suggests bitcoin could revisit levels in the $50,000s or even the $40,000s before a durable bottom is formed.
The halving is central to bitcoin’s design because it cuts the reward miners receive for validating transactions in half roughly every four years, reducing the rate at which new coins are created.
This built-in supply shock reinforces bitcoin’s scarcity, a core part of its value proposition, and has historically preceded major bull markets as reduced new supply meets steady or rising demand.
The halving mechanism slows bitcoin’s inflation rate over time, ultimately capping total supply at 21 million coins and reinforcing its positioning as digital gold.
"We are exactly where we should be,” Terpin argued, pointing to the well-established four-year cycle anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events.
One of the most reliable elements of prior cycles has been the rough timing of the bubble peak and subsequent unwind, he argued.
“The bull market popped in the fourth quarter after the halving,” he notes, adding that the speculative blow-off phase typically lasts between nine and 11 months. “This time it was 11 months.”
Terpin draws a close parallel to the last cycle. “The highs, the bubble popping, were on Nov. 10, 2021,” he says. “The lows were right after FTX declared bankruptcy on Nov. 10, 2022. Exactly a year to the day.”
Read more: Crypto asset manager Bitwise says bitcoin will break its four-year cycle in 2026
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Standard Chartered sees bitcoin sliding to $50,000, ether to $1,400 before recovery
The bank cuts its 2026 crypto price targets, warning of further near-term capitulation as ETF outflows and macro headwinds weigh on digital assets.
What to know:
- Standard Chartered expects bitcoin to fall to around $50,000 and ether to $1,400 in the coming months.
- The bank lowered its end-2026 targets to $100,000 for BTC and $4,000 for ETH.
- Long-term forecasts through 2030 remain unchanged, with the bank still constructive on the asset class.
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