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Bitcoin Could Tumble Back to $88K: Glassnode
The analytics firm warns that Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim the $113K cost basis may lead to a far deeper retracement amid long-term holder selling and fragile sentiment.
Updated Oct 30, 2025, 7:09 p.m. Published Oct 30, 2025, 6:18 p.m.
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What to know:
- Long-term holders have distributed around 104,000 BTC this month, the heaviest selling since July, while short-term holders are exiting at a loss, said Glassnode.
- Volatility has eased since October’s liquidation, but market confidence remains weak, leaving bitcoin vulnerable to renewed downside pressure.
It's no secret that the price action in bitcoin hasn't been great of late, but in truth, the world's largest crypto has mostly traded in a range between about $100,000 and $120,000 for nearly the whole of 2025.
That may be about to change in an ugly way, according to Glassnode, whose latest weekly report highlighted growing concern for bitcoin as it struggles to reclaim the $113,000 short-term holder cost basis, which represents the average purchase price of investors who bought within the last 155 days.
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This level serves as a key threshold for sustaining a bull market. Despite multiple attempts to regain it, bitcoin’s repeated failures suggest weakening momentum.
Glassnode warns that if the price continues to falter, a tumble all the way back to $88,000 — the next significant support level — could be in the cards. That $88,000 level is the current active investors’ realized price, a metric which reflects the cost basis of actively circulating supply that often marks deeper corrective phases. This same metric nearly came into play during the April 2025 “tariff tantrum” correction.
The report suggests investor sentiment is showing signs of strain. Short-term holders are now selling at a loss. The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL) sits at –0.05 with bitcoin around $107,000, signaling mild losses. While not at full capitulation levels (around –0.2), it reflects deteriorating confidence.
Long-term holders are also contributing to sell pressure. The Long-Term Holder Net Position Change has declined by 104,000 BTC this month, marking the largest wave of distribution since July. Glassnode notes that until long-term holders shift back from selling to accumulation, price recovery is likely to remain constrained.
Meanwhile, the derivatives market appears calmer following the October liquidation crisis. Realized volatility has dropped to roughly 43%, and traders have scaled back downside hedges. The one-week options skew, which spiked above 20% during October’s turmoil, has now normalized near neutral, according to Glassnode.
Overall, Glassnode sees the bitcoin market transitioning into a consolidation phase after October’s turmoil. However, sentiment and structural demand remain fragile, suggesting that while the worst of the panic may be over, recovery will depend on renewed investor conviction.
Bitcoin is currently trading just under $107,000 lower by 4% over the past 24 hours.
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