Fed Cuts Rate in 'Risk Management' Move as Bitcoin Eyes Possible Upside

The Federal Reserve has returned to easing mode after ten months of taking a wait and see approach on the U.S. economy.

In a widely expected move on Wednesday, the U.S. central bank cut its benchmark fed funds interest rate range by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25%, the lowest since December 2022, in what Fed chair Jerome Powell called a "risk management cut."

The Fed acknowledged that economic growth in the first half of the year "moderated" and the job market has "slowed." This slowdown, Powell said during a press conference, is mostly due to changes in immigration. Nevertheless, there was no widespread support for a larger cut, he said, and that the Fed was right to wait to lower rates and will not be rushed to cut more aggressively.

The decision follows growing signs that the U.S. labor market has begun to decisively weaken, the latest being the August employment report which showed the addition of just 22,000 jobs to the economy and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021.

"The Fed is under pressure to lean more dovish, and any successor to Powell is likely to favor faster and deeper rate reductions," Chris Rhine, Head of Liquid Active Strategies at Galaxy, said. "While risk assets had largely priced in this cut, the updated dot plot aligns with recent sell-side forecasts, pointing to another 50bps of cuts ahead."

Alongside that data, revisions to previous months' reports showed far less jobs had been created than previously thought.

Added to that was political pressure in the form of President Trump's repeated criticisms of the Fed’s hesitancy to act in the face of what he insists has been softening inflation. Powell said during Wednesday's press conference that the Fed is "strongly committed to maintaining [its] independence."

Bitcoin 'new highs' possible

In the minutes following the rate cut, the price of bitcoin BTC$89,646.37 rose about 1% before giving up gains. It is currently down about 1.5% since the decision, trading at $115,092.

Major U.S. stock indexes — which have been repeatedly carving out record highs for weeks ahead of the Fed move — also briefly rose on the news but later fell sharply. Gold followed a similar move.

"The dots leaned more dovish, signaling the Fed is open to accelerating the pace of easing if conditions demand it," said Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares. "That repricing risk is now front and center - creating an asymmetric setup for Bitcoin. While today’s 25bps cut provided the spark, it is the path implied by the dots - more than the cut itself - that may set the stage for Bitcoin to challenge new highs into year-end.”

Looking ahead

A glance at the Fed's dot plot shows that the Commission is torn about how the rest of the year will unfold. A slight majority of participants of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) believe there could be two more rate cuts this year.

Seven out of the 19 participants see rates kept steady throughout the year.

UPDATE (September 17, 18:18 UTC): Adds dot plot projections and markets update alongside commentary.

UPDATE (September 17, 18:39 UTC): Adds quote on markets.

UPDATE (September 17, 18:45 UTC): Adds quotes from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.