As Bitcoin Bounces, On-Chain Data Point to Selling Pressure Near $113.6K

As bitcoin BTC$65,905.67 bulls aim to reestablish an upward price trajectory, they may face resistance from sellers near the $113,600 level, according to on-chain data.

BTC has already bounced to $112,800 from sub-$108,800 levels hit Tuesday, CoinDesk data show. The bounce is likely fueled by a fresh all-time high in the S&P 500 and a better-than-expected earnings report by Nvidia, one of the largest publicly listed companies in the world by market value and a bellwether for all things artificial intelligence.

The path ahead may prove challenging, as investors holding at a loss may look to sell into any price rebound.

"Currently, bitcoin trades beneath the cost basis of both the 1-month ($115.6k) and 3-month ($113.6k) cohorts, leaving these investors under stress. Any relief rally is therefore likely to encounter resistance, as short-term holders seek to exit at breakeven," analytics firm Glassnode said in a report published Wednesday.

Glassnode's cost basis metric reveals the average purchase prices at which digital assets have been acquired by wallets with varying holding durations. For example, the three-month cost basis of $113,600 indicates that investors holding assets purchased within the past three months paid, on average, this price level.

Mixed flows

As of now, the spot market flows suggest an uphill battle for the bulls ahead, while ETF and corporate activity suggest otherwise.

"Spot demand remains neutral, as perpetuals tilt bearish with CVD negative. The current funding rate of ~0.01% points to a fragile neutrality. If price breaks above $112.4K with volume, it opens the pathway to $114K – $116K," Timothy Misir, head of research, BRN.

That said, ETF inflows and corporate adoption of BTC continues to suck out significant supply from the market, offering a bullish hope, Misir explained.

"ETF flows continue to strengthen with $81 million for Bitcoin ETFs and $307 million for Ether ETFs over the past day. ETFs, corporates, and governments are now absorbing ~3,600 BTC/day, which translates to ~4x miner issuance. Metaplanet announced a new plan to raise $881 million to buy $837 million BTC in Sep–Oct, adding to its 18,991 BTC," he noted.

Gauging key support

Should BTC turn lower, then $107,000 is the key support level to watch.

That's because analysis by Glassnode shows that the six-month cost basis is at that level. So, a break lower would prompt these holdings to sell, potentially causing a more profound decline.

"The 6-month cost basis sits near ~$107k. A sustained move below this level risks triggering fear, which could accelerate downside momentum," Glassnode said.