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Crypto Rally Doesn't Hold After Soft Inflation Data
Bitcoin managed a knee-jerk move above $84,000 after the U.S. CPI report, but returned to roughly flat for the day.
Updated Mar 13, 2025, 1:21 p.m. Published Mar 12, 2025, 8:32 p.m.
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What to know:
- Bitcoin was trading at $82,800 at press time, down modestly from 24 hours ago.
- Ether was a notable underperformer in crypto, dropping 3.5% to $1,880; the ETH/BTC ratio has plunged 67% since its November 2021 high.
- Traders are expecting the Fed to resume with rate cuts this year, but the timing and extent of the easing remains in question.
The crypto sector was mostly flat for the day, as a short rally following better than hoped U.S. inflation data quickly lost steam.
Bitcoin is trading at $82,800, down 0.5% in the last 24 hours. The CoinDesk 20 — an index of the top 20 cryptocurrencies excluding exchange coins, stablecoins and memecoins — is lower by 0.8% in the same period of time.
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Pulling that broader gauge lower was ether is the worst performing asset in the index and currently off 3.5% to roughly $1,880. At 0.022, the ETH/BTC ratio is now at the same level as it was in April 2020, right before DeFi summer brought projects such as Uniswap and MakerDao into the spotlight. The ETH/BTC ratio has plunged a staggering 67% since its all-time high in November 2021.
Read more: Inflation Relief as U.S. CPI Dips to Less Than Forecast 2.8% in February
“Today's lower-than-expected CPI should be bullish, signaling faster rate cuts, but crypto hasn't reacted strongly," Dr. Youwei Yang, Chief Economist at BIT Mining, told CoinDesk by email. "Weeks of market fear require more than a single good print to regain confidence."
“The real issue is Trump’s aggressive tariffs, which risk making inflation stickier while also crashing markets,” Yang added, also mentioning the layoffs initiated by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). “This puts the Fed in a bind: High inflation from tariffs makes rate cuts harder. Market crashes and job losses pressure the Fed to cut rates sooner. Cutting too early could reignite inflation, making future policy tougher.”
The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to restart rate cuts, perhaps as soon as May or June, with the possibility of as many of 100 basis points in cuts by October.
U.S. stocks enjoyed a modest bounce on Wednesday after a roughly 10% plunge over the past few weeks. The Nasdaq closed with a 1.2% advance while the S&P 500 managed a 0.5% gain.
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KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.
What to know:
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
- Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
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Silver nears $1 billion in volume on Hyperliquid as bitcoin remains frozen: Asia Morning Briefing
Silver perps have more volume on Hyperliquid than SOL or XRP.
What to know:
- Silver futures on the Hyperliquid crypto derivatives exchange have surged to become one of its most active markets, ranking just behind bitcoin and ether in trading volume.
- The SILVER-USDC contract’s high volume, sizable open interest and slightly negative funding suggest traders are using crypto infrastructure for volatility and hedging in macro commodities rather than for directional crypto bets.
- Bitcoin is holding near $88,000 in a "defensive equilibrium" with cooling ETF inflows, uneven derivatives positioning and rising demand for downside protection, while ether lags and capital rotates toward hard assets like gold and silver.
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