Share this article
Polymarket Bettors Are Confident Justin Trudeau Will Resign by Friday
Duelling scoops from two of Canada's largest newspapers put Trudeau's departure as early as Monday, but Polymarket bettors aren't so sure it'll come that early.
Updated Jan 6, 2025, 11:39 a.m. Published Jan 6, 2025, 11:33 a.m.
Make us preferred on Google
What to know:
- Two of Canada's largest newspapers had dueling scoops over the weekend that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's political career would soon end.
- Polymarket bettors are confident that he will resign by Friday, but not so sure if it will happen as early as Monday as the Toronto Star suggests.
Will he stay, or will he go? For Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the latter appears imminent. Now bettors on Polymarket are debating on when exactly he'll announce his resignation.
While Trudeau resignation contracts aren't anything new, there are two with low six-figures of volume attached to them asking if he'll be gone by February or April, and another from December asking if opposition parties will trigger an election by the spring.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
The interest in the Canadian Prime Minister's fate popped up on Monday after scoops from two of Canada's largest newspapers put his resignation date to be either Monday or before Wednesday.
The Toronto Star says the resignation is coming as early as Monday, while the Globe and Mail, which had it first, said the announcement would come before a national Liberal Party caucus meeting scheduled for Wednesday.
Polymarket bettors are skeptical on whether the announcement could come earlier. One contract, which is betting on Monday has just over $45,000 in volume, and only gives a 24% chance the week will start with Trudeau signing off.
Another, asking if the Prime Minister will step down by Wednesday, gives it a 72% chance but that specific contract has a much smaller volume at around $10,000. Finally, a third, asking if he'll be gone by Friday puts the chance of that happening at 80%.
While the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail both have their sources that say a resignation is imminent, Reuters, which it says spoke to someone different, says Trudeau hasn't yet made up his mind.
Angus Reid, a Canadian pollster, gives the Prime Minister a 22% approval rating. Polling aggregators show that if an election were to be held today, Trudeau's Liberals would be decimated, only winning 46 seats while the Conservatives would take 225 giving them a majority in Canada's Parliament.
Elsewhere on Polymarket, bettors are giving a 3% chance that Canada joins the United States as its 51st state by July – an idea that started as a joke on President-elect Donald Trump's social media accounts.
More For You
KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.
What to know:
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
- Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
Lebih untuk Anda
Here’s why bitcoin’s is failing its role as a 'safe haven' versus gold
Bitcoin behaves more like an "ATM" during uncertain times, with investors quickly selling it to raise cash.
Yang perlu diketahui:
- During recent geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin lost 6.6% of its value, while gold rose 8.6%, demonstrating bitcoin's vulnerability in times of market stress.
- Bitcoin behaves more like an "ATM" during uncertain times, with investors quickly selling it to raise cash, contrary to its reputation as a stable digital asset.
- Gold remains the preferred hedge for short-term risks, while bitcoin is better suited for long-term monetary and geopolitical uncertainties that unfold over years.
Top Stories
