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Ongoing Profit-Taking Could Slow Bitcoin's Move to Record High
Historical data suggests when the bitcoin circulating supply in profit is over 94% we tend to see a sell-off due to profit-taking.
Updated Oct 17, 2024, 4:25 p.m. Published Oct 17, 2024, 12:12 p.m.
- The last time the DXY index was above 103, it was during the Yen carry trade unwind back on Aug. 5 when bitcoin dropped to $49,000.
- Over 94% of the bitcoin circulating supply is now sitting in profit, historical data tell us profit-taking should start to build up.
Bitcoin {BTC}}, the largest token by market cap, has surged 12% this week, likely setting the stage for a record high in the coming weeks.
The expected progress toward new highs, however, may be slow due to profit-taking. That's because data tracked by Glassnode show approximately 5% of the BTC circulating supply is in loss, while the rest of 95% is in profit.
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The latter means there could be selling pressure from profitable holders liquidating their coins in a rising market.
Historically, bitcoin has faced selling pressure, resulting in price corrections, whenever the percent of supply in profit has crossed the 94% threshold.
Long-term holders (LTH), defined by Glassnode as those holding coins or at least 155 days, could be the one taking profits, living up to their reputation of being smart traders or those that buy when prices are depressed and sell into a rising market. As of writing, LTHs hold only 500,000 BTC at a loss, which is a small fraction, considering they hold 14 million BTC as a cohort.
Meanwhile, short-term holders currently own 235,000 BTC at a loss, the lowest since March during bitcoin's all-time high.
Profit-taking has begun
Realized profit has increased over the past week, signaling profit taking from some investors.
Glassnode data shows that over $11 billion in realized profit has taken place in just over a week, with $5.6 billion on Oct. 8 alone, making it the single biggest profit-taking day since May 28.
Strong momentum
Two factors show the true strength of this rally: bitcoin dominance making new cycle highs and approaching 60%, which was last seen in April 2021.
In addition, BTC remains resilient even as the DXY index continues to climb higher, now above 103.5. The last time the DXY index was above 103 was during the yen carry trade unwind on Aug. 5, which sent bitcoin plummeting from $65,000 to $49,000 over a few days.
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What to know:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
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Japan’s Higher Rates Puts Bitcoin in the Crosshairs of a Yen Carry Unwind
A stronger yen typically coincides with de-risking across macro portfolios, and that dynamic could tighten liquidity conditions that recently helped bitcoin rebound from November’s lows.
What to know:
- The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to 0.75% at its December meeting, the highest since 1995, affecting global markets including cryptocurrencies.
- A stronger yen could lead to de-risking in macro portfolios, impacting liquidity conditions that have supported bitcoin's recent recovery.
- Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated a high probability of a rate hike, with officials prepared for further tightening if their economic outlook supports it.
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