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Bitcoin Risks Deeper Price Losses Below 50-Day Average: Analysts
A break below the 50-day simple moving average would shift the focus to long-term support near $25,200, one analyst said.
Jul 26, 2023, 10:56 a.m.
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Bitcoin recently dived below a multiweek trading range and may suffer deeper losses if buyers fail to defend key support, according to technical analysts.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value fell over 3% on Monday, confirming a breakdown of a three-week long-range play between $29,500 and $32,000. Since then, the downside has been capped around the widely tracked 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $29,140.
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According to Fairlead Strategies' founder and managing partner Katie Stockton, the outlook could worsen if the that support level gives away.
"Two consecutive daily closes below the 50-day MA (~$29.0K) would increase downside risk back to long-term support near $25.2K," Stockton said in a note to clients late Monday.
Unlike stock markets, cryptocurrencies trade 24/7, which means there is no daily close price as such. Chart analysts, however, consider the last traded price at 23:59 UTC as the daily close to confirm the reliability of technical breakouts/breakdowns.
As Stockton notes, the weekly chart indicators suggest potential for a move below the 50-day average.
"A breakdown appears likely given an overbought downturn in the weekly stochastics. Also, the weekly MACD is pinched towards a 'sell' signal in another possible setback if it confirms," she noted.
Traders use the stochastic indicator to gauge overbought and oversold conditions. On the weekly chart, the indicator has turned down from an overbought, or above-20, reading, confirming what is known as overbought downturn, often a precurser to price pullbacks.
The MACD histogram is used to gauge trend changes and strength. A crossover below zero is said to confirm a sell signal or a bullish-to-bearish shift in sentiment.
Alex Kuptsikevich, the senior market analyst at FxPro, says the market seems to have found an equilibrium ahead of the major central bank rate decisions, but risks of deeper drawdown persist.
"The market has found its temporary equilibrium as it awaits the decisions of three major central banks – the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan – later this week. Their actions and comments will likely complete the market consolidation and set the trend for the coming weeks," Kuptsikevich said in an email on Tuesday.
"If bearish pressure intensifies [below 50-day SMA], the next significant support level would be $27,000, the lower boundary of the rising channel from the November lows and the 200-week moving average," Kuptsikevich added.
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