Share this article
FTX Raises 'TRUMP' Futures Margins as Price Suggests Lower Expectations of Election Win
FTX said the price of one TRUMP contract roughly equals the president's expected chances of reelection.
Updated Sep 14, 2021, 10:25 a.m. Published Oct 30, 2020, 11:11 a.m.
Cryptocurrency derivatives exchange FTX is increasing the margin requirements on its TRUMP and other President 2020 futures contracts.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Announced Friday, the exchange said it is upping the initial margin requirement to $0.50, meaning traders must put up that amount to acquire 1 short TRUMP contract. The change comes in on Saturday at 12:30 UTC.
Conversely, users wishing to go long TRUMP require $0.36, which is also the current price of the futures contract.
The pricing suggests traders are factoring in President Donald Trump's chances of reelection come Nov. 3, when the U.S. heads to the polls and, by their estimates, the odds look to be dropping.
See also: FTX Launches Bitcoin Pairs for Top Stocks Like Amazon, Apple and Tesla
FTX outlines on its website that, ignoring fees, inefficiency and spread, the price of one TRUMP contract equals the president's expected chances of reelection. Therefore, if users believe there's a 52% chance of the president's reelection then the contract should trade for $0.52.
TRUMP contracts expire at $1 if Donald Trump wins the election and at $0 should he lose.
The price of the other President 2020 contracts should also roughly equal the probability the corresponding candidate wins the general election, the exchange said.
The price of the BIDEN contract at press time is $0.65, up 0.31% on the day.
More For You
What to know:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
Higit pang Para sa Iyo
Japan’s Higher Rates Puts Bitcoin in the Crosshairs of a Yen Carry Unwind
A stronger yen typically coincides with de-risking across macro portfolios, and that dynamic could tighten liquidity conditions that recently helped bitcoin rebound from November’s lows.
Ano ang dapat malaman:
- The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to 0.75% at its December meeting, the highest since 1995, affecting global markets including cryptocurrencies.
- A stronger yen could lead to de-risking in macro portfolios, impacting liquidity conditions that have supported bitcoin's recent recovery.
- Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated a high probability of a rate hike, with officials prepared for further tightening if their economic outlook supports it.
Top Stories
