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Unexpected Decline in Core CPI Sends Bitcoin Price Higher
Bitcoin has been consolidating in a range 10%-15% below record highs as investors largely tempered expectations of further interest rate cuts.
Updated Jan 15, 2025, 1:47 p.m. Published Jan 15, 2025, 1:40 p.m.
What to know:
- Headline inflation rose faster than expected last month, but the year-over-year core rate declined, cheering investors.
- Policymakers had previously been frustrated at the core rate's stickiness.
- The price of bitcoin jumped to $98,500 following the data.
While headline inflation came in faster than hoped in December, investors for the moment are in buy mode after an unexpected decline in the year-over-year core rate.
The closely-watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.4% in December, slightly higher than analyst consensus and the previous month's 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, CPI was up 2.9%, compared to analyst forecasts for 2.9% and previous month's reading at 2.7%.
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Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2% in December, versus expectations for 0.2% and the previous month's 0.3% figure. Core CPI year-over-year, however, dipped to 3.2% against forecasts for 3.3% and the November rate of 3.3%.
The core pace of inflation is of considerable import to policymakers, who have expressed at least a modest bit of frustration over its stickiness above 3% as headline inflation fell at a far quicker pace.
The price of bitcoin (BTC) rose about $1,500 in the minutes following the report to $98,500 following the report, up 2% over the past 24 hours, CoinDesk data shows.
In traditional markets, U.S. stock index futures added about 0.5% after the data, while bond yields and the dollar both sharply declined.
Crypto markets have traded rangebound through January at the whims of macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations amidst a strong economy and concerns of sticky inflation. Bitcoin consolidated mostly below $100,000 since Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments in December. That, along with a string of stronger-than-forecast economic and inflation data, led market participants to nearly erase all expectations for rate cuts this year.
Most recently, Tuesday's Producer Price Index (PPI) for December showed cooler than expected inflation readings, supporting BTC's rebound to $97,000 following the abrupt sell-off below $90,000 earlier in the week.
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Federal Reserve Cuts Rates 25 Basis Points, With Two Voting for Steady Policy
The anticipated move comes as policymakers are still operating without several key economic data releases that remain delayed or suspended due to the U.S. government shutdown.
What to know:
- As expected, the Federal Reserve trimmed its benchmark fed funds rate range by 25 basis points on Wednesday afternoon.
- Today's cut is notable given the unusually large amount of public dissension among Fed members for further monetary ease.
- Two Fed members dissented from the rate cut, preferring instead to hold rates steady, while one member voted for a 50 basis point rate cut.
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