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Bitcoin Eyes $139K by Year-End Amid Macro Resilience and On-Chain Strength: 21Shares
Historical patterns and market signals suggest further upside — if no major shocks derail momentum, according to a report from 21Shares.
Updated Apr 18, 2025, 7:32 p.m. Published Apr 19, 2024, 1:00 p.m.
What to know:
- Bitcoin’s reaction to industry and macro shocks shows maturing investor confidence, 21Shares said in a report Friday.
- Rising adoption in high-inflation economies reinforces Bitcoin’s hedge narrative, the report said.
- On-chain data and liquidity trends suggest the market is in a consolidation phase, not a peak.
Bitcoin could reach $138,555 by the end of 2025, according to a new 21Shares analysis of historical trends and current market signals that shows the world’s largest cryptocurrency gaining strength from macroeconomic uncertainty and on-chain momentum.
The current market cycle resembles 2021, when a major shock — in that case, China’s mining ban — triggered a reset without upending the long-term bullish trend, according to the report. This time around, disillusionment with macro policy and rising global liquidity seem to be playing a similar role. Price action shows resilience, not fear, with bitcoin now trading around $84,400, up from $83,152 earlier this month.
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What’s different now is how bitcoin responds to shocks. Market-wide collapses like Silicon Valley Bank’s failure no longer spark panic selling. Instead, these types of shocks increasingly reinforce the crypto’s role as a hedge against traditional finance risk, 21Shares argued. In countries like Argentina and Turkey, where inflation and currency devaluation persist, bitcoin adoption continues to grow.
Notably, recent crypto-native failures — like the Bybit hack — haven’t shaken investor faith in bitcoin itself. Unlike earlier cycles, the market now seems able to separate failures of centralized actors from the decentralized protocol’s value.
On-chain indicators, including accumulation trends and the behavior of long-term holders, suggest that Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase rather than approaching a top. Meanwhile, growing flows from spot ETFs, improving regulatory clarity and the asset’s integration with traditional finance are adding fuel to the current rally.
Though there’s still a chance of a pullback — possibly down to the 200-day moving average near $77,000 — the broader setup points toward continued growth. The projection of $138,555 would mark a 64% increase from current levels.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
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