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Bitcoin Faces Resistance at $33K; Support at $22K-$25K
Volatility could rise, especially if another price breakdown occurs.
Updated May 11, 2023, 6:06 p.m. Published May 27, 2022, 6:49 p.m.
Bitcoin (BTC) has traded below the $33,000 resistance level last week, although price action has stabilized within a tight range. That could point to an increase in volatility, similar to what occurred earlier this month.
BTC was down by about 3% over the past week and has outperformed most alternative cryptos, which suggests a lower appetite for risk among traders. Typically, in down markets, BTC declines less than alts because of its lower risk profile.
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The relative strength index (RSI) on the weekly chart is the most oversold since March 2020, which preceded a strong crypto rally. This time however, the deterioration in long-term momentum suggests limited upside in BTC.
There is growing risk of additional breakdowns in price because of negative momentum readings based on weekly and monthly price data. If a volatile down move occurs, initial support is seen at $25,000, which is around the May 9 price low. There is additional support at the 200-week moving average, currently at $22,061, which could stabilize price action.
A more conclusive downside target would be $17,673, which is roughly 78% of the prior uptrend from March 2020 to November 2021. That price level would also result in a roughly 73% peak-to-trough decline, which could signal capitulation. Bitcoin declined by 83% from its all-time high around $19,890 during the 2018 crypto bear market.
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Bank of Japan Set to Hike Rates to 30-Year High, Posing Another Threat to Bitcoin
Rising Japanese rates and a stronger yen threaten carry trades and could pressure crypto markets despite easing U.S. policy.
What to know:
- According to the Nikkei, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to increase interest rates to 75bps, the highest level in 30 years.
- Rising Japanese funding costs, alongside falling U.S rates, could force leveraged funds to reduce carry trade exposure, increasing downside risk for bitcoin.
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