Updated May 11, 2023, 4:50 p.m. Published Jan 31, 2022, 12:07 p.m.
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Bitcoin’s biggest challenge is its volatility and the boom and bust cycles that hinder further institutional adoption, JPMorgan said in a research report.
The bank’s fair value estimate for bitcoin BTC$90,378.26 based on the volatility ratio of bitcoin to gold fell to around four times, or $38,000, analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in the note published last week.
JPMorgan said its previous forecast of the bitcoin-to-gold ratio falling to around two times now seems unrealistic. The bank sees significant headwinds for both bitcoin and ether.
The challenge for ether ETH$3,102.42 is different from that for bitcoin because ether derives most of its value as a “decentralized application currency rather than a form of digital gold,” JPMorgan said.
The Ethereum blockchain is facing challenges due to declining market share in the decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible-token (NFT) sectors, the bank said. During this month’s market correction, Ethereum failed to recapture market share from its main competitors, with ether prices falling by a similar magnitude compared with smaller alternative coins (altcoins), the bank added.
Similar to last May, unwinding of leveraged futures contracts played a significant role in the crypto market correction in recent weeks, the bank said, but this month’s unwinding of positions seems less severe.
Bitcoin was trading around $37,244 as of publication time.
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Onchain data shows multiple cost basis metrics confirm heavy demand and investor conviction around the $80,000 price level.
What to know:
Bitcoin rebounded from the $80,000 region after a sharp correction from its October all time high, with price holding above the average entry levels of key metrics.
The convergence of the True Market Mean, U.S. ETF cost basis, and the 2024 yearly cost basis around the low $80,000 range highlights this zone as a major area of structural support.