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Bitcoin Returns Above $40K; Faces Resistance at $45K-$50K

Strong overhead resistance could limit price rallies into next week.

Updated Mar 2, 2023, 12:42 p.m. Published Aug 6, 2021, 11:29 a.m.
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Bitcoin (BTC) is testing resistance near $40,000 after several breakout attempts over the past three months. The short-squeeze rally lost some momentum this week, although downside appears limited around the $34,000 to $36,000 support zone.

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The next level of resistance is seen at the 200-day moving average near $45,000. A successful breakout would yield an initial upside target towards $50,000-$55,000.

Bitcoin was trading around $40,600 at press time and is up 6% over the past 24 hours.

  • The relative strength index (RSI) is declining from overbought levels, which could encourage some profit taking around resistance levels.
  • Bitcoin’s intermediate term trend is improving after holding support above $30,000 over the past three months.
  • A decisive move above the 200-day moving average would clear the downtrend since April, although strong overhead resistance could limit price rallies into next week.

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Open interest data suggests the advance is likely short-covering, rather than fresh longs entering the market.

What to know:

  • Bitcoin was trading higher during U.S. market hours, marking a notable shift after a month in which BTC fell roughly 20 percent cumulatively while American stocks were open.
  • Declining open interest suggests the move is driven by short-covering rather than fresh leveraged longs.
  • Broader crypto markets remain fragile as ETF outflows, tax-related positioning, and light holiday liquidity pressure prices.