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Bitcoin Rallies From Oversold Levels; Faces Resistance at $40K

The short-term trend is improving after a series of lower price highs since May.

Updated Mar 6, 2023, 3:39 p.m. Published Jun 10, 2021, 11:28 a.m.
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Bitcoin (BTC) broke above initial resistance at $36,000 after a near 13% rise on Wednesday. The next resistance level is seen at $40,000, which capped upside moves over the past two weeks.

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The short-term trend is improving after a series of lower price highs since May. The weekly chart is showing initial signs of downside exhaustion, which could stabilize the month-long corrective phase.

  • Bitcoin returned above the 100-day moving average on the four-hour chart and is approaching short-term overbought levels.
  • Buyers could remain active towards $40,000, which is also near the 200-day moving average. The cryptocurrency was trading around $38,000 at press time.
  • If a pullback occurs, bitcoin should find initial support around $34,000. Lower support around $30,000 was tested multiple times over the past two weeks as buyers return.
  • Bitcoin will need to break free of the short-term consolidation phase to maintain the bullish uptrend. For now, recoveries appear limited given strong overhead resistance.

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The director of global macro at the asset management giant remains a secular bull on bitcoin, but isn't optimistic about the next year.

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  • A number of notable market analysts of late have dismissed the idea of bitcoin's four-year cycle and the nearly certain bear market that might imply.
  • Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer, however, says the action so far this time around lines up about perfectly with past four-year cycles and the current bearish action should last deep into 2026.