Share this article
Market Wrap: Bitcoin Futures Premium Rises Again Despite Bitcoin’s Relatively Flat Performance
Bitcoin traders are increasing their bullish bets in futures markets – and taking more risk.
By Muyao Shen
Updated Mar 8, 2024, 4:21 p.m. Published Apr 6, 2021, 8:32 p.m.
Make us preferred on Google
- Bitcoin was trading around $58,246.41 as of 20:00 UTC (4 p.m. ET). Slipping 1.31% over the previous 24 hours.
- Bitcoin’s 24-hour range: $57,421.85-$59,484.20 (CoinDesk 20)
- BTC trades below its 10-hour and 50-hour averages on the hourly chart, a bearish signal for market technicians.
Bitcoin's futures premium creeps back up
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Recently, bitcoin’s price movements have been less exciting than the triple- and sometimes quadruple-digit-percentage gains witnessed in alternative cryptocurrencies, or “altcoins.”
The No. 1 cryptocurrency has traded in a narrow range between $56,552 and $60,102 over the past week, while ether, the native token of the Ethereum blockchain, has climbed more than 20% to a new all-time high over $2,100.
But in the past couple of weeks, traders in bitcoin derivative markets have been ratcheting up their bets on future gains.
The annualized futures premium rate – a gauge of bullish bets – has averaged 22% to 25% on retail-focused derivatives exchanges like FTX, BitMEX, Deribit and Binance. That compares with about 13% on the Chicago-based CME exchange, which tends to be more focused on institutional investors.
An increased futures premium – the spread between futures prices and spot-market prices – indicates that more retail traders are looking at upside exposure of the market despite bitcoin’s relatively flat performance lately.
“Traders are expecting higher prices and taking on long positions,” Bendik Norheim Schei, head of research at Arcane Research, told CoinDesk.
But with the increasing bullishness comes a higher risk of a snapback: The bitcoin market experienced a total $27.5 billion worth of long position liquidation during the first quarter of 2021, reflecting the huge amount of leverage in the markets built up as the largest cryptocurrency rallied into the new year, as noted by Arcane Research in its weekly newsletter on April 6.
“It is always concerning when these futures premiums climb too high, indicating an overly confident and leveraged market,” according to Arcane. “This usually leads to rounds of liquidations and sharp pullbacks, so traders should consider de-risking in this current environment.”
Ether and altcoins
- Ether trading around $2,114.60 as of 20:00 UTC (4 p.m. ET). Climbing 0.44% over the previous 24 hours.
- Ether’s 24-hour range: $2,045.40-$2,151.25 (CoinDesk 20)
- Ether trades above its 10-hour and 50-hour averages on the hourly chart, a bullish signal for market technicians.
Ether and other altcoins continue to outperform bitcoin. The No. 2 cryptocurrency by market capitalization has traded above $2,000 since it claimed a new all-time high a day ago.
Ether’s latest rally “follows Visa’s announcement that transactions can be settled using USD coin (USDC), a stablecoin powered by the Ethereum blockchain,” Simon Peters, crypto analyst at eToro, wrote in an email.
“Meanwhile, large volumes of ether are increasingly being locked into [decentralized finance] projects and the ETH 2.0 deposit contract,” Peters added. “This reduces the supply in circulation while announcements like Visa’s increase demand, thereby pushing prices higher.”
As of April 6, more than 10 million ether are locked in decentralized finance, up from about 7 million 90 days ago, according to DeFi Pulse:
At the same time, blockchain data site Glassnode shows that nearly 4 million ether has staked on Eth 2.0:
Other digital assets on the CoinDesk 20 are mostly higher Tuesday. Notable winners as of 20:00 UTC (4:00 p.m. ET):
- xrp + 27.95%
- ethereum classic (ETC) + 17.19%
- omg network (OMG) + 15.23%
- litecoin + 9.45%
- chainlink + 8.2%
Read More: XRP Rises Above $1 for First Time Since March 2018, Despite SEC Shadow
Notable losers:
Other markets
Equities:
- Asia’s Nikkei 225 closed down 1.3%.
- The FTSE 100 in Europe was up by 1.28%.
- The S&P 500 in the United States closed nearly flat, down 0.097%.
Commodities:
- Oil was up 1.19%. Price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude: $59.35.
- Gold was in the green 0.81% and at $1742.24 as of press time.
Treasurys:
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell Tuesday, dipping to 1.654%.
More For You
KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.
What to know:
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
- Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
More For You
How a 'perpetual’ stock trick could solve Michael Saylor’s $8 billion debt problem
The bitcoin treasury firm is using perpetual preferreds to retire convertibles, offering a potential framework for managing long-dated leverage.
What to know:
- Strive upsized its SATA follow on offering beyond $150 million, pricing the perpetual preferred at $90.
- The structure offers a blueprint for replacing fixed maturity convertibles with perpetual equity capital that removes refinancing risk.
- Strategy has a $3 billion convertible tranche due in June 2028 with a $672.40 conversion price, which could be addressed using a similar preferred equity approach.
Top Stories
