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Bitcoin Started Moving in Sync With S&P 500, Volume Dropped, Kraken Says in June Volatility Report
According to the crypto exchange’s report, June was the most uneventful month for Bitcoin (BTC) trading since February and was marked by a reversal in correlation trends with gold and the S&P 500.
Updated Sep 14, 2021, 9:29 a.m. Published Jul 9, 2020, 5:54 p.m.
A 31% drop in month-over-month trading volume in June drove bitcoin’s annualized volatility to a six-month low, according to a recent report by the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken.
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- According to the report, June was the most uneventful month for bitcoin trading since February as a lack of market activity brought down trading volume to a four-month low of $36.6 billion.
- In light of the subdued market and low volatility, bitcoin saw a price drop of 4.4%, the lowest monthly change since August last year.
- The report also found that in a reversal of trends from earlier this year, bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 turned “substantially more positive” and climbed to 0.65 in late-June.
- In the same month, bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with gold slipped below the 1-year average and hit a low of -0.49.
- According to the report, bitcoin’s reversal in correlations with gold and S&P 500 made it behave less like a safe-haven asset and more like a traditional financial asset amid a global stock market recovery during June.
- The report says market participants for bitcoin should now pay closer attention to the 30-day forward looking volatility index for the S&P 500 (VIX), and that if BTC is going to break the multi-year macro down-trend, it would need to climb above $10,500 and trigger an upward trend.
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Coinbase Sees Crypto Recovery Ahead as Liquidity Improves and Fed Rate Cut Odds Climb
The crypto exchange also took note of a so-called AI bubble that continues to go strong and a weaker U.S. dollar.
What to know:
- Coinbase Institutional is seeing a potential December recovery in crypto, citing improving liquidity and a shift in macroeconomic conditions that could favor risk assets like bitcoin.
- The firm's optimism is driven by rising odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in a 93% chance easing next week, and improving liquidity conditions.
- Several recent institutional developments, including Vanguard's crypto ETF policy reversal and Bank of America's greenlighting of crypto allocations, have contributed to bitcoin's rebound from recent lows.
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