XRP, Bitcoin on the Edge; Will Santa Abandon Nasdaq?

This is a technical analysis post by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

Payments-focused cryptocurrency XRP XRP$1.8504 has taken a hit this week, falling more than 6% to $2, a level that has become a make-or-break line for the Ripple-linked token.

Since last December, this level has emerged as a bear fatigue zone, a spot where the selling pressure tends to ease up, as indicated by the lower wicks on several weekly candles.

The takeaway: if and when the $2 support gives way, disappointed holders may run for the exit, causing an extended price slide.

For now, prices hold the support line. For the outlook to turn bullish, prices need to overcome the descending trendline connecting lower highs since July, currently hanging around $2.50.

Speaking of bitcoin BTC$87,900.48, the leading cryptocurrency is hovering close to what may be the most crucial support trio since forever: a bullish trendline that's traced higher lows through 2023 and 2024, the 100-week simple moving average (SMA), and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the brutal bear market bottom in late 2022 to just over $126,000, the recently hit record high.

Break that, and the attention shifts to April's swing low near $74,500, then to the 2021 bull-market peak, just shy of $70,000. Some traders are already making their moves, bracing for sub-$80,000 BTC in the early days of 2026.

On the higher side, BTC bulls need to reclaim the 50-week SMA, the critical lifeline perched just above $102,252, if they want to convince the market that the broader bull run is still alive and kicking.

Nasdaq top in?

The task may be easier said than done, as a classic "hanging man" candlestick pattern has emerged on Nasdaq's monthly chart, warning of an impending weakness. Both BTC and tech stocks tend to move in lockstep more often than not.

The pattern is characterized by a small real body near the top of the candle, a long lower shadow at least twice the body’s length, and little or no upper shadow, and indicates that selling pressure is emerging, and the uptrend might be losing momentum.

When it appears at record highs, as in Nasdaq's case, it warns of a potential reversal or a pause in the upward move, suggesting that traders should watch closely for confirmation of a bearish turn in subsequent candles.

So, between XRP and bitcoin at these knife-edge supports and Nasdaq’s uneasy top signals, traders have a lot on their plates. Perhaps the Santa rally that both technology stocks and cryptocurrency bulls are counting on may not arrive this year.