Share this article
Bitcoin Bulls' Last Stand? $95K, According to This Well-Followed Analyst
Nearly 57% of all money ever invested in bitcoin is in the red at the $100,000 level according to James Check.
Updated Nov 5, 2025, 4:59 p.m. Published Nov 5, 2025, 3:44 p.m.
Make us preferred on Google
What to know:
- Around 57% of all invested capital is underwater at $100,000.
- Analyst Checkmate warns that a fall below $95,000 would mark a critical shift, and potentially signal the start of a bear market.
- Coinglass' Fear & Greed Index has tumbled to "Extreme Fear" levels.
While bitcoin's decline below $100,000 yesterday was of significant symbolic importance, it's the $95,000 level which could prove key, according to James Check, or Checkmate, as he's known in the online world.
Nearly 57% of all dollars invested in bitcoin are now underwater at the $100,000 level, according to Check, helping to explain the current deep fear in markets. However, said Check, losses right now sit at roughly $20 billion, or 3% of bitcoin's market cap. Previous price dips in 2024 and earlier this year saw losses relative to market cap reach the 7%-8% level.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
A decline to $95,000, though, brings losses closer to the 10% area, which, said Check, marks the point when historical bear markets tend to get going.
"The current market conditions are some of the hardest to read in my experience," Check continued. "We don't want to see the price fall below $95,000, but I also expect the bulls to mount one hell of a fight to defend it."
Speaking of deep fear, Coinglass' Fear & Greed Index has slumped just into the "Extreme Fear" range at the 24 level. Readings of Extreme Fear have, on occasion, been associated with at least short-term bottoms in bitcoin. For comparison, the gauge dropped as low as 21 during April's tariff panic in which bitcoin tumbled to $75,000.
Read more: Galaxy's Research Chief Capitulates on Bullish Bitcoin Call After Tuesday's Plunge
More For You
Forget $80k: Michael Terpin warns bitcoin could revisit the $40,000s before a real recovery
Terpin argued that bitcoin’s post-halving bubble followed its typical arc and says history suggests the market may still face another wave of pain.
What to know:
- Michael Terpin says the bull market peak came in the fourth quarter after the halving, in line with prior cycles.
- While dismissing $80,000 and $60,000 bottom calls as premature, he sees the potential for bitcoin to revisit the $50,000s or even $40,000s in a fragile market.
Top Stories
