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Bitcoin Set for Quick Run to $135K and Beyond: Standard Chartered
ETF investors shifting from gold to bitcoin could accelerate the rally into year-end, with BTC potentially hitting $200,000, lead analyst Geoff Kendrick said.
Oct 4, 2025, 12:00 p.m.
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What to know:
- BTC continued its big move this week, nearly advancing to a new record above $124,500.
- Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick sees $135,000 quickly incoming, with the U.S. government shutdown as a near-term catalyst for further upside.
- Bitcoin ETF inflows are projected to accelerate toward year-end, supporting a $200,000 target, said Kendrick.
Bitcoin has ripped about 13% this week, surging Friday to just shy of a new record of $124,500.
With that ceiling nearly cleared, a quick move to $135,000 could be in the cards, according to Standard Chartered head of digital asset research Geoffrey Kendrick.
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In a note published on Friday, Kendrick argued that the U.S. government shutdown is playing a bigger role in markets than in past episodes supporting bitcoin's rally. During the 2018-2019 shutdown, BTC traded in a different context. Now, the largest crypto has been closely correlated with U.S. government risk, measured by the U.S. Treasury term premiums, a relationship that suggests the uncertainty around the shutdown acts as a bullish driver this time.
Traders on prediction marketplace Polymarket currently give more than a 60% chance that the shutdown lasts 10–29 days. Kendrick forecasted BTC will continue to rise throughout that period.
Kendrick also highlighted a coming shift in ETF investor behavior. While gold ETFs have recently outperformed their BTC counterparts with gold pushing to record prices, spot bitcoin ETF flows are poised to catch up providing tailwind for the asset, the report said.
Of the $58 billion in net BTC ETF inflows so far, $23 billion has come in 2025, he said. This week alone, they attracted over $2.25 billion without the Friday session.
Kendrick projected that the vehicles could pull in another $20 billion investor capital by year-end – enough to keep his $200,000 year-end BTC price target in play.
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KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.
What to know:
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
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- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
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Gold tops $5,000 as bitcoin stalls near $87,000 in widening macro-crypto split: Asia Morning Briefing
Bitcoin’s onchain data points to supply overhang and weak participation, while gold’s breakout is priced by markets as a durable macro regime shift.
What to know:
- Gold’s surge above $5,000 an ounce is increasingly seen as a durable regime shift, with investors treating the metal as a persistent hedge against geopolitical risk, central bank demand and a weaker dollar.
- Bitcoin is stuck near $87,000 in a low-conviction market, as on-chain data show older holders selling into rallies, newer buyers absorbing losses and a heavy supply overhang capping moves toward $100,000.
- Derivatives and prediction markets point to continued consolidation in bitcoin and sustained strength in gold, with thin futures volumes, subdued leverage and weak demand for higher-beta crypto assets like ether reinforcing the cautious tone.
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