Share this article
Polymarket’s Top Trader Bets on a 50bps Fed Rate Cut Next Week
The market expects a 25 basis point cut, with a 91% probability according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.
Sep 10, 2025, 6:12 a.m.
Make us preferred on Google
What to know:
- A top trader on Polymarket is betting on a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.
- The trader, known as JustWakingUp, has placed a $15,000 bet and could earn $226,000 if the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points.
- Despite the trader's bet, the market expects a 25 basis point cut, with a 91% probability according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.
A leading trader on decentralized betting platform Polymarket, who goes by the name JustWakingUp, is wagering that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) next week.
According to X handle Polymarket Whales, JustWakingUp is the platform’s most prolific trader, boasting nearly $400 million in total trading volume to date and profits exceeding $2 million.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
The trader has placed a $15,000 bet that the Fed will reduce rates by 50 bps to 3.75% next week and is already showing a 3% gain on the position as of writing. The trader stands to make roughly $226,000 if the Fed does cut rates by 5 bps.
The market, however, largely expects the Fed to deliver a 25 basis point cut next week, with the CME’s FedWatch Tool assigning a 91% probability to such an outcome.
That said, the odds of a jumbo 50 bps cut have surged to nearly 10% following Friday’s disappointing August jobs report, reflecting growing expectations of more aggressive easing. BlackRock and StanChart have called for a 50 bps cut.
Adding to market expectations, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that the economy added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months ending March 2025 than previously estimated, marking the largest annual downward revision on record.
Traders are now closely watching Wednesday’s U.S. Producer Price Index and Thursday’s Consumer Price Index data releases. Softer-than-expected readings could add to expectations for a 50 bps cut, potentially sending bitcoin and stocks higher.
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.
More For You
KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.
What to know:
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
- Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
More For You
Key bitcoin price levels to watch as downward pressure builds
As bitcoin remains in a downtrend, several technical and onchain levels stand out as critical areas of support.
What to know:
- The 100-week moving average at $87,145 remains the main line of defense.
- Below this, the cost basis of U.S. spot bitcoin ETF buyers at $84,099 has provided support during recent consolidation.
- A sustained break below $80,000 would likely open the door to a revisit of the April 2025 low near $76,000.
Top Stories
