ETH Going to $16K in This Cycle? Analyst Explains Why This Could happen

Ether ETH$2,969.43 hovered near $3,800 on Thursday as increasingly bullish price targets circulated on crypto social media, including one analyst who outlined a case for $16,000 based on long-term technical setups and sustained institutional inflows.

"Edward", a popular chart analyst on X, argued in a Thursday post that a five-digit ether price is now within reach, pointing to a “clean ascending triangle” formation on the monthly ETH chart. This structure, commonly seen as a pre-breakout pattern, mirrors technical conditions observed in 2020 — just before ether embarked on a 2,000% rally.

In Edward’s view, a decisive breakout above $4,000 could trigger a similar move, with the triangle’s projected vertical range implying potential upside toward the $15,000–$16,000 zone. “The structure is there. Demand is rising. Supply is capped,” he wrote, noting that momentum and fundamentals appear to be aligning for the first time in years.

He pointed to three main drivers fueling the outlook: accumulation by institutions, the continued success of ether ETFs, and the cryptocurrency’s emerging role as financial infrastructure. According to Edward, volatility in ETH has dropped even as inflows rise—evidence that long-term investors are quietly building positions. “This is not retail-driven mania; it’s long-tail institutional buildup. Quiet, sustained, and methodical,” he said.

Edward also cited a surge in spot ETH ETF flows, now totaling over $5.3 billion across 18 consecutive trading days since early July. With ether issuance capped at under 1 million tokens annually and corporate treasuries also accumulating, he warned of a looming supply squeeze.

Finally, Edward emphasized that Ethereum’s function as programmable collateral—enabled by restaking, Layer 2s, and real-world asset integrations — has positioned ether as part of the “financial core” of a multi-chain economy. “Price targets like $15K are based on a changing macro role,” he noted.

Some analysts caution that ether may encounter resistance before any long-term breakout can take hold.

Michaël van de Poppe noted that volatility has sharply declined in recent sessions, a pattern that often precedes local tops. He suggested ether could face short-term resistance near the $4,000 level before entering a modest corrective phase. However, he framed such a pullback as a healthy pause in what he believes is the start of a broader altcoin bull cycle that could unfold over the next 12 to 24 months.

At the time of writing, ether is trading at around $3,800, up 1.01% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinDesk Data.

Technical Analysis Highlights

• According to CoinDesk Research's technical analysis data model, ETH gained 1.01% in the 24-hour period ending July 31 at 12:00 UTC, rising from $3,762.87 to $3,800.85.
• The trading range stretched 4.87%, from an intraday low of $3,693.42 to a high of $3,873.39.
• A sharp V-shaped recovery followed a high-volume dip to $3,685.69 during the 18:00–19:00 UTC window, signaling institutional buying.
• ETH closed the day near $3,800, with volume-supported bounces suggesting accumulation at $3,825.
• Final hour trading (11:36–12:35 UTC) showed disciplined consolidation, with price action contained between $3,825.22 and $3,842.71.

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