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Bitcoin May Have Hit Bottom After Its 30% Fall from All-Time High
Bitcoin may see bullish momentum if history repeats, echoing patterns from the U.S. spot ETF launch and August’s yen carry trade unwind.
Apr 2, 2025, 9:03 a.m.
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What to know:
- Bitcoin may have formed a bottom, showing a pattern of higher lows similar to past corrections following major events.
- Historical parallels with the U.S. spot ETF launch and August’s yen carry trade unwind suggest a potential for renewed bullish momentum.
The number one question on investors' minds is whether an asset has hit its bottom after being in a sustained downtrend for an extended period of time.
Recent price action suggests that bitcoin may have found its bottom just above $76,000 on March 10. This move has formed a pattern reminiscent of previous bottoming events in recent history.
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In this current correction, bitcoin fell 30% from it's all-time high of $109,000 reached on Jan. 20. After hitting a low on March 10, it recorded higher lows on both sides of that date—around $78,000 on Feb. 28 and just above $81,000 on March 31—forming a triangular bottom.
A similar pattern played out during the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024, when bitcoin bottomed near $49,000 on Aug. 5. Again, higher lows were seen on either side: on July 7 and September 7.
Another instance occurred during the launch of the U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. Bitcoin experienced a 20% correction, hitting a low just below $40,000 on Jan. 23, with higher lows on both sides of that date as well.
Omkar Godbole, managing editor of CoinDesk Markets, also points to signs that bitcoin could be bottoming out, noting the emergence of a bullish structure. “The latest pattern, indicating a shift from lower lows to higher lows and signifying seller exhaustion, resembles bottoming patterns seen in August and early 2024,”.
"There’s reason to consider the possibility of renewed bullish momentum—though, as always, external risks like Trump’s tariffs could disrupt the trend", Godbole says.
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KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.
What to know:
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
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- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
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Gold tops $5,000 as bitcoin stalls near $87,000 in widening macro-crypto split: Asia Morning Briefing
Bitcoin’s onchain data points to supply overhang and weak participation, while gold’s breakout is priced by markets as a durable macro regime shift.
What to know:
- Gold’s surge above $5,000 an ounce is increasingly seen as a durable regime shift, with investors treating the metal as a persistent hedge against geopolitical risk, central bank demand and a weaker dollar.
- Bitcoin is stuck near $87,000 in a low-conviction market, as on-chain data show older holders selling into rallies, newer buyers absorbing losses and a heavy supply overhang capping moves toward $100,000.
- Derivatives and prediction markets point to continued consolidation in bitcoin and sustained strength in gold, with thin futures volumes, subdued leverage and weak demand for higher-beta crypto assets like ether reinforcing the cautious tone.
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