Share this article
Bull Trap? Bitcoin Prices Struggle to Build Momentum Above Moving Average
The price of bitcoin is still holding strong above $4,000, but a failure to move above a key indicator could temper bullish sentiment.
Updated Sep 14, 2021, 1:56 p.m. Published Sep 28, 2017, 5:35 p.m.
Make us preferred on Google
Despite rising above its 50-day moving average again today, the bitcoin-US dollar (BTC/USD) exchange rate is having a hard time gaining altitude.
At press time, the cryptocurrency is trading at $4,188, down from a high of $4,269 earlier today; its highest level since September 12. Week-on-week, BTC is up 14.4%, while month-on-month it is still nursing 5.5% loss.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Still, with no clear news or technical drivers, there is cause for concern that a potential "bull trap" is developing. With prices failing to build on the overnight bullish break, caution is likely to seep into the market.
Further, price action analysis underscores the need for traders to be cautious – a failure to hold above 50-day moving average for the third time could turn the tables in favor of the bears.
Daily chart - History is not repeating itself
On the charts, bulls are struggling to mimic a successful pattern in July (when a rebound from the 100-day moving average in the wake of an oversold relative strength index was followed by a rally to record high).
Back in July, the rebound from 100-day moving average was followed by a convincing break above the 50-day moving average.
This time, however, it's a different story. Rather, bulls are having a tough time keeping the cryptocurrency above the 50-day moving average. BTC has already failed twice (on September 16 and September 19) to build upon a break above the indicator.
Prices rose above 50-day moving average yesterday, but faced rejection at $4,269 and fell back to $4,140 (the 50-day moving average). A failure to hold above the key moving average for the third time would be bad news for bitcoin.
Bearish scenario
A failure to hold above 50-day moving average followed by a break below the rising trend line support (seen sloping higher to $3,930) would signal the cryptocurrency has topped out. Prices could then drop to $3,382 (100-day moving average levels).
Bullish scenario
Sideways to positive action above the 50-day moving average over the next 48 hours or so would improve the odds of a rally to $4,500-$4,665 (September 7 high).
Bug zapper via Shutterstock
More For You
KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.
What to know:
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
- Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
More For You
Here's what bitcoin bulls are saying as price remains stuck during global rally
It's about a lot more than "zooming out." Supply overhangs and investor "muscle memory" regarding gold help explain bitcoin's poor absolute and relative performance.
What to know:
- Bitcoin has failed so far to act as an inflation hedge or safe-haven asset, lagging badly behind gold, which has surged amid high inflation, wars, and interest rate uncertainty.
- Crypto advocates argue that bitcoin’s weakness reflects a temporary supply overhang, investor “muscle memory” favoring familiar precious metals and its correlation with risk assets, rather than a collapse in long-term demand.
- Many bitcoin proponents still see BTC as a superior long-term store of value and “digital gold,” predicting that, once traditional hard assets are overbought, capital will rotate into bitcoin, allowing it to “catch up” to gold.
Top Stories
