Bitcoin ETFs Need Almost $1B Inflows to Sidestep Second-Biggest Outflow on Record

Bitcoin BTC$91,487.74 bulls face a lofty challenge this week: funnel nearly $1 billion into the U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and prevent these publicly listed institutional investment vehicles from registering their second-worst performance on record.

In January 2024, Nasdaq listed 11 spot bitcoin ETFs, allowing investors to take exposure to the cryptocurrency while eliminating the need for self-custody of coins. Since then, these funds have cumulatively amassed $53.9 billion in investor money.

However, this month has been a different story. These funds have registered a net outflow of $972 million, which is the second-largest since their inception, only behind the $3.56 billion in February, according to data source SoSoValue. A negative tally by Friday would mark the end of the four-month inflows streak.

The slowdown in uptake for ETFs is one of the key reasons for BTC's dour price performance this month, according to analysts. The spot price peaked at a record high of over $124,000 early this month and last changed hands just above $100,000.

"This month alone could see the second-highest outflow on record, compared with February's $3.5 billion peak during the U.S. tariff debacle. Seasonal headwinds may not last, but they are a reminder that flow and seasonality matter," Matrixport said in Tuesday's edition of Chart of the Day.

The firm added that this remains a period to "tread carefully," even though macro and liquidity drivers could eventually push BTC higher.

The consensus is that BTC will continue to gain ground into the year, potentially reaching levels above $150,000. But that would require sizable inflows, according to 10x Research's founder Markus Thielen.

"Some argue that bitcoin’s macro narrative alone is what matters, but without real capital flows, the price cannot rise. To reach $150,000, Bitcoin would require roughly $404 billion in total inflows this year—meaning an additional $173 billion between now and year-end," Thielen said in a note to clients Tuesday.

"That is double the combined allocations from Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy since early January 2024," he added.

Note that ether ETFs have registered a net inflow of $3.23 billion this month, extending the winning streak since April.