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The Fourth Largest Weekly Drop in Dollar Index in Over a Decade Signals Bitcoin Bottom
One of the largest weekly DXY index drops since 2013 tends to align with bitcoin cycle lows.
Updated Mar 7, 2025, 2:10 p.m. Published Mar 7, 2025, 1:17 p.m.
What to know:
- Fourth occurrence of a -4 standard deviation drop in the DXY Index since 2013, a rare event historically linked to bitcoin bottoms.
- Previous instances in 2015, 2020, and 2022 led to significant bitcoin rebounds following the drop.
The DXY Index, has experienced one of its sharpest one-week declines since 2013. The index measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies.
According to Bloomberg data from Global Macro Investor, the index’s one-week percentage drop has exceeded a negative four standard deviation move—a rare event that has only occurred three other times in bitcoin's history.
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These previous occurrences include November 2022, when bitcoin hit its cycle low of $15,500 during the FTX collapse; March 2020, amid the covid 19 pandemic, when bitcoin briefly fell below $5,000; and the 2015 bear market, when bitcoin traded around $250. Each time the DXY Index suffered a drop larger than a -4 standard deviation, it coincided with a bitcoin bottom, followed by significant price gains.
Additionally, CoinDesk research highlights that the DXY Index is currently declining at a faster rate than in President Trump's first term— a period that aligned with the 2017 bitcoin bull run. A decline in the DXY Index tends to be favourable for risk-assets, however a DXY index above 100, is still considered strong, currently at 103.8.
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