Share this article
The Clock Has Ticked on Bitcoin's Post Halving Surge, 100 Days After the Latest Quadrennial Halving
July 29 marks the 100th day since the Bitcoin blockchain cut per block mining rewards to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.
Updated Jul 29, 2024, 6:43 p.m. Published Jul 29, 2024, 6:56 a.m.
Make us preferred on Google
- July 29 marks the 100th day since the Bitcoin blockchain cut per block mining rewards to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.
- Data from past halvings show the bullish impact of the programmed code takes effect after 100 days.
Moving past Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's appearance at the Nashville Bitcoin conference, the crypto community will likely remember that July 29 marks the 100th day since the Bitcoin blockchain implemented its fourth mining reward halving.
The bullish impact of the halving-led slowdown in bitcoin's supply expansion tends to kick in after 100 days, new research by ETC Group shows.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Bitcoin mining reward halving is an inbuilt code that takes effect every four years or after 210,000 blocks are mined on the blockchain. The quadrennial event reduces the reward miners receive for validating transactions by 50 percent.
The primary goal is to control the supply of bitcoin and ensure it becomes scarce over time, unlike fiat currencies, which have ever-increasing supply (monetary inflation). Bitcoin's supply is capped at 21 million, and reward halving helps to manage how fast that limit is hit.
The first halving, implemented in 2012, reduced the per-block reward paid to miners to 25 BTC from 50 BTC. Over the next two halvings, the per-block supply fell to 6.25 BTC. The latest halving, implemented on April 20, reduced it further to 3.125 BTC.
The previous halvings paved the way for multi-fold price rallies, with most gains coming after the first 100 days.
"Today marks exactly 100 days after the Bitcoin Halving event on April 20. The market tends to have a short memory, but the halving-induced supply deficit should just start taking effect from now on," Andre Dragosch, head of research at ETC Group, said on X.
Dragosch reached that conclusion after scanning the performance data before and after the previous three halvings implemented in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
The study showed that the mean excess performance – the difference between performance X number of days after the halving and X before halving – increases significantly 100 days after the halving and becomes statistically significant, with "T-values" exceeding 2%.
The T-value is a statistical figure used in hypothesis testing to determine how far the sample mean is from the population mean, which is stabilized by the sample's variability.
"The key takeaway is that 100 days after the Halving, the performance difference becomes statistically significant (T-value > 2) and then becomes increasingly significant until around 400 days after the Halving," Dragosch told CoinDesk.
The chart shows that the mean excess performance rises above 100% from the 100th day after halving and eventually peaks into four figures.
It remains to be seen if history will repeat itself.
More For You
KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.
What to know:
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
- Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
More For You
Kevin O'Leary says power is now more valuable than bitcoin
"Shark Tank" investor Kevin O'Leary is pivoting his crypto strategy from tokens to energy infrastructure, declaring that power generation is now the real prize.
What to know:
The big pivot: O'Leary has moved capital away from smaller tokens to focus on physical infrastructure like land, power, and copper.
- He believes power is now "more valuable than bitcoin" and has secured significant land deals with stranded natural gas in Alberta and the U.S.
- His thesis is driven by the massive energy needs of bitcoin mining and AI, noting that entities controlling power can serve either market.
- He advises investors to look at copper and gold, noting copper prices have nearly quadrupled for his projects in the last 18 months.
- He views Robinhood and Coinbase as "no-brainer" infrastructure investments, having reallocated capital from altcoins into these platforms. He describes Robinhood as the premier bridge for managing equity and crypto in one portfolio, while labeling Coinbase the "de facto standard" for businesses to manage stablecoin transactions and vendor payments once regulatory acts pass.
Top Stories
