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Vibe Check: The Bullish Bounce Back: CoinDesk Indices' Todd Groth
Periodic observations and market musings from Todd Groth, Head of Research, CoinDesk Indices.
Updated Jan 31, 2024, 2:00 p.m. Published Jan 31, 2024, 2:00 p.m.
Bullish Bounce Back
We’ve bounced back having found support last week (see previous Vibe Check), with the CoinDesk 20 Index outperforming bitcoin narrowly and ether significantly.
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So what’s providing the source for the dramatic bounce in the market? In addition to Bitcoin’s rebound, Solana's 25% gain and Avalanche's 23% rise are providing some additional buoyancy to the broader market.
Over the past month, we’re seen a noticeable drop in correlations (daily returns) within the digital asset market, with BTC versus ETH correlations dropping, altcoins to CoinDesk 20 rising, and crypto vs equity market correlations flipping positively.
Much stronger correlations now observed between US 10-yr yield changes and risk assets such as crypto and equity markets, as when and how much rates are cut in the future seems to be the predominant question being debated within markets.
Need more color on what's happening in the markets? Check out these stories:
- Ether Could Hit $4,000 With Likely Spot ETH ETF Approval in May: Standard Chartered: The British bank expects the SEC will treat spot ether ETF applications similarly to bitcoin ETFs and anticipates approvals on May 23.
- Bitcoin Price Nears $44K as ETFs See Net Inflows for First Time in a Week: The last previous net inflow day was January 22, when the spot products as a group added just over 1,200 bitcoin.
- SOL, AVAX Lead Crypto-Market Recovery, Bitcoin Tops 50-Day Average Before Fed Meeting: Altcoins' consistent positive performance over the past six days is boosting optimism and setting up bitcoin to test $46,000, one analyst said.
- Bitcoin ETF Has Broken BTC's Pandemic-Era Price Correlation With Luxury Watches: Crypto prices have decoupled from prices for luxury watches, ending a prolonged positive correlation caused by unprecedented monetary stimulus.
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What to know:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
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Bitcoin gets 'base case' price target of $143,000 at Citigroup
The Wall Street bank said its bitcoin forecast relies on further crypto ETF inflows and a continued rally in traditional equity markets.
What to know:
- Citigroup's base case for bitcoin (BTC) is a rise to $143,000 in 12 months.
- Analysts highlight $70,000 as key support, with the potential for a sharp rise due to revived ETF demand and positive market forecasts.
- The bear case sees bitcoin falling to $78,500 amid a global recession, while the bull case predicts a rise to $189,000 due to increased investor demand.
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