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Bitcoin Falls Below $102K; Easing of Tariff Risk Could See More Underperformance
After one month of eye-popping gains, fattened bulls are lightening up after the U.S. and China announced a trade truce.
May 12, 2025, 7:34 p.m.
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What to know:
- The price of bitcoin (BTC) pulled back below $102,000 after nearly reaching $106,000 hours earlier on the U.S./China trade deal.
- It's a minor setback after a month-long rally following mid-April's post-Liberation Day bottom below $75,000.
- One analyst suggested bitcoin could underperform going forward now that tariff risk has been reduced.
In another addition to the old Wall Street maxim of "buy the rumor, sell the news," bitcoin has headed lower after the U.S. and China announced at least a temporary truce in their trade war.
Bitcoin had been pumping higher since bottoming just under $75,000 in the days following President Trump's early April Liberation Day tariff shocker. The price finally again topped $100,000 late last week following an agreement with the UK. China was the gorilla though and BTC nearly reached $106,000 in the early morning hours on Monday after the two countries over the weekend agreed to suspend most tariffs on each other’s goods for 90 days.
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At press time, bitcoin had pulled back to $101,300, lower by 3% over the past 24 hours.
Stock markets surge
Buy the rumor, sell the news, however, isn't applying to U.S. stocks today. Shortly before the close, the Nasdaq is higher by 3.9% and the S&P 500 by 3.1%.
What gives? No one can know for sure, but bitcoin's rally from the April bottom — more than 40% at the peak earlier Monday — had far surpassed that of the major U.S. averages. Given that bitcoin was easily the more extended asset, the sizable relative underperformance today makes a bit more sense.
"Bitcoin has been the clear outperformer so far, largely because it remains insulated from tariff-related risks," Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. "Following the latest Bessent and Greer announcements, I expect altcoins, U.S. equities, and the U.S. dollar, which all underperformed sharply in the first quarter, to begin catching up as the broader risk environment improves."
Despite today's pullback, Kirill Kretov, trading automation expert at CoinPanel, noted that the 90-day tariff pause gave market participants a "clear, short-term positive signal" that's supportive for risk assets including crypto, even though headwinds could rise again without a broader deal in place once the pause expires.
"Lower tariffs ease inflationary pressures and improve global liquidity conditions, both of which are typically bullish for BTC and other cryptocurrencies," he said. "However, keep in mind that this is a temporary arrangement; volatility will likely return as the 90-day window approaches its end."
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