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Floor Prices for Donald Trump NFTs Surge on News of Possible Indictment
Meanwhile, the Polymarket prediction contracts relating to the former U.S. president's indictment have become some of the most actively traded on the platform.
Updated Mar 23, 2023, 3:22 p.m. Published Mar 23, 2023, 11:39 a.m.
A set of non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, related to Donald Trump have jumped over 30% in ether-denominated value over the past week amid a possible indictment and arrest of the former U.S. president and current GOP presidential candidate.
At the time of writing, Polygon-based Trump Digital Trading Cards were selling for over 0.59 ether (ETH), or about $1,033, up from 0.33 ETH, or $578, last week. More than 735 Trump NFTs have been sold during that period, attracting 401 ether in trading volume, according to data from NFT marketplace OpenSea.
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The rally comes amid reports of Trump's possible arrest. Trump is expected to be indicted in the coming days, as Fox News first reported on March 17, on charges stemming from an alleged hush money payment made to adult actress Stormy Daniels at the height of the 2016 election.
The New York Times reported that prosecutors are looking at charging Trump for violating campaign-finance law and falsifying business records as the alleged payments to Daniels were entered into Trump’s books as a payment to his lawyer for legal services. Theoretically, that could land Trump in jail for up to four years, though lawyers say that it would be a tough case to prosecute.
The New York Times also reported that Trump could be facing multiple other charges regarding classified documents he illegally kept at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida and false statements he made about it after. He also may face charges for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at Capitol Hill.
Trump NFTs a hit with his supporters
Trump released the collection of 45,000 fantasy cards last December for $99 apiece, featuring images of him in a style similar to collectible baseball cards.
Collectors who purchase one of the digital trading cards will be automatically entered into a "sweepstakes" to receive "experiences" with Trump, including a Zoom call, a dinner in Miami or a cocktail hour at Mar-a-Lago, as CoinDesk previously reported.
The cards sold out quickly at the time. As of Thursday, data shows wallet 0xfb65 holds the highest individual Trump NFTs with 1,000 cards followed by 0x75d2 at 362 cards. Neither of the two holders has listed his or her NFTs for sale.
When is the indictment?
The decision to indict and then arrest Trump hasn't been made final by the Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, though media reports – and Trump himself – have indicated that it is as a sure thing.
On Polymarket, investors have priced the likelihood of a Trump indictment happening by March 31 at 68%, or 68 cents. The figure was as high as 93% after Trump had said he expected to be arrested by March 21.
Polymarket is a crypto betting service that allows users to pick one of at least two options on given trades, such as election results.
There’s currently $93,000 of volume, and $11,000 of liquidity, on this contract, making it one of Polymarket’s more actively traded markets.
A contract that asks if Trump will be arrested by May 31 has the "yes" side trading at 87%, while another contract asking if Trump will be arrested by Friday, March 24 has the "no" side at 85%.
Complicating the indictment and the arrest are security concerns, and authorities are taking time to prepare for possible protests, which may be why investors on Polymarket are backing off the idea of an arrest by the end of March.
If indicted, Trump would be the first U.S. president to be indicted, but wouldn't be the first to be arrested as Ulysses S. Grant was arrested for speeding in his horse-drawn carriage in 1872, according to the Washington Post.
Investors on Polymarket are also pricing in a 10% chance that Trump tweets by April 1 and a 53% chance that he smiles in his mug shot.
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