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Bitcoin Bounce Falls Short at Resistance, Support at $30K-$34K

BTC buyers struggled near $40K resistance this week. Upside appears to be limited.

Updated Mar 6, 2023, 2:46 p.m. Published Jun 18, 2021, 11:28 a.m.
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The relief rally from the June 8 low of about $31,000 was short-lived as buyers struggled near $40,000 resistance this week. Bitcoin (BTC) is stuck in a monthlong consolidation phase and could face downside pressure into the weekend.

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The daily price chart shows a series of lower price highs since April, which suggests sellers are in control. Initial support is seen at $34,000 and then at $30,000, although upside appears to be limited given the downward sloping 50-day moving average.

Bitcoin was trading around $37,900 at press time and is down about 3% over the past 24-hours.

  • The consolidation phase lacks upside momentum, which, at this moment, does not confirm a decisive bottom in bitcoin.
  • The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is rising from an initial oversold reading on May 19. However, the weekly RSI is not yet oversold, which could keep sellers active toward lower support levels.
  • Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains intact, although a significant loss of momentum over the past few months suggests an extended period of drawdowns similar to the previous bear market in 2018.

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With large caps still tracking bitcoin and high-beta assets already weakened, Glassnode’s True Market Mean has become the line investors are watching most closely.

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  • Bitcoin's True Market Mean at $81.3k is a critical level, with potential market-wide implications if breached.
  • Large-cap crypto assets remain closely correlated with bitcoin, reinforcing its role as the market's anchor.
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