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Bitcoin Fails at Key Price Hurdle, Risks Return to $8,000
Bitcoin's quick pullback from a 2.5-week high of $8,830 this morning has invalidated a bullish breakout on the 4-hour chart.
Par Omkar Godbole
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Bitcoin is facing further losses after the bulls failed to capitalize on price gains seen this week.
The cryptocurrency's quick pullback from a 2.5-week high of $8,830 to below $8,400 this morning has invalidated a bullish breakout on the 4-hour chart seen Wednesday, as seen below.
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4-hour chart
The failure to hold above the 200-day moving average (MA) at $8,654 has also weakened the bullish outlook on the daily chart and may have shifted risk in favor of a drop to $8,000 in the next 24 hours.
Daily chart
Bitcoin crossed the 200-day MA in the Asian trading hours on Friday and jumped to highs above $8,800, as expected. The breakout was short-lived, however, and prices fell from $8,820 to $8,356 in the 60 minutes to 06:00 UTC.
The failure to hold above the long-term average – a barometer of the long-term trend and a level which has acted as stiff resistance over the last two weeks – may embolden sellers, possibly leading to the deeper slide to $8,000.
A daily close above the 200-day MA is needed to revive the short-term bullish setup.
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Small investors are buying bitcoin. For a rally to succeed, the whales need to join in.
Small wallets have increased their BTC holdings by 2.5% since October's all-time high while large holders trimmed 0.8%, Santiment data shows.
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- Bitcoin wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC have increased their share of supply to the highest since mid-2024 even as the price holds around the mid-$60,000s.
- Larger holders with 10 to 10,000 bitcoins — the whales and sharks that typically drive major moves — have reduced their positions since the October peak.
- The divergence supports choppy, fragile price action because retail demand alone cannot sustain rallies when big wallets are distributing into every recovery.
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