Crypto bulls ignore 'extreme fear' to push bitcoin higher

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC$69,016.72 and the wider crypto market gained in the past 24 hours after January's U.S. jobs report showed growth in many sectors of the economy was restrained even as the overall number trounced forecasts and dented hopes for near-term interest-rate cuts.

BTC advanced 1.25% over the period and the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index added 1.18%. The resilience follows a punishing drop last week that saw the price of bitcoin plunge to near $60,000.

That selloff triggered $3.2 billion in realized losses, the largest in bitcoin’s history, overtaking even the 2022 Terra collapse, according to data from Glassnode. Data platform Checkonchain called it a “textbook capitulation event,” in which low-conviction holders sold off rapidly. Open interest also plunged, according to CoinGlass.

The remaining traders appear reluctant to sell even as interest-rate cuts appear to be more distant. Rate cuts drive down fixed-income product yields, making riskier assets more attractive.

Odds on the Fed lowering rates by 25 basis points next month have plunged to 7% from 18% on prediction market Polymarket and to the same level from 20% on rival Kalshi.

Bitcoin’s positive reaction suggests sellers are indeed running out of steam. That, coupled with a Crypto Fear & Greed Index pointing to the lowest level since the collapse of FTX in 2022, suggests the market bottom may be in the past.

That being said, tomorrow’s U.S. CPI report will provide the market with a clearer direction on what the Federal Reserve may do in the future. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • Nothing scheduled.
• Macro
  • Feb. 12, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. initial jobless claims week ending Feb. 7 (Prev. 231K)
  • Feb. 12, 10 a.m.: U.S. existing home sales for January Est. 4.25M (Prev. 4.35M)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Feb. 12: Coinbase (COIN), post-market, $1.04
  • Feb. 12: Coincheck Group (CNCK), post-market, $0.01
  • Feb. 12: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market, -$0.06

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • Feb. 12: Bittensor to host a livestream on X regarding governance.
• Unlocks
  • No major unlocks.
• Token Launches
  • Feb. 12: BlockDAG Network (BDAG) to be listed on MEXC, Coinstore, LBank, BitMart, Xt, and others.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Day 3 of 3: Consensus Hong Kong
• Day 3 of 3: Solana Breakout (Online)

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.56% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $67,385.45 (24hrs: +1.72%)
• ETH is up 0.32% at $1,975.60 (24hrs: +2.26%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.48% at 1,939.73 (24hrs: +2.48%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 13 bps at 3%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0032% (3.4514% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 96.81
• Gold futures are down 0.22% at $5,087.40
• Silver futures are down 0.78% at $83.26
• Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 57,639.84
• Hang Seng closed down 0.86% at 27,032.54
• FTSE is up 0.20% at 10,492.86
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.58% at 6,070.81
• DJIA closed on Wednesday down 0.13% at 50,121.40
• S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,941.47
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.16% at 23,066.47
• S&P/TSX Composite closed unchanged at 33,254.19
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.6% at 3,806.41
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.2 bps at 4.171%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.24% at 6,977.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.2% at 25,338.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.27% at 50,342.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.03% (-0.2%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02931 (1.21%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,000 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $33.91
• Total fees: 2.94 BTC / $197,662
• CME Futures Open Interest: 115,095 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 13.4 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.52%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows the ratio between Solana's sol SOL$84.47 and bitcoin on a weekly basis.
• The SOL/BTC weekly ratio is currently just bouncing from a support line.
• Looking at this as an indicator of 'speculation' relative to BTC, the chart looks to have bottomed out, though neither the ratio nor RSI have confirmed the bounce.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $153.20 (-5.73%), +0.10% at $153.35 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $57.86 (-3.16%), +0.93% at $58.40
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.40 (-3.73%)
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $31.88 (-0.53%), +0.63% at $32.08
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $7.56 (-1.31%), +0.53% at $7.60
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.80 (-0.20%), +0.47% at $14.87
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.09 (-0.22%)
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.62 (-4.09%), +0.52% at $9.67
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $41.64 (-2.30%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.08 (-7.18%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $126.07 (-5.21%), +1.29% at $127.70
• Strive (ASST): closed at $8.09 (-11.87%), +1.85% at $8.24
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.62 (-0.45%), +0.76% at $6.67
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.82 (-16.31%), +0.49% at $0.82
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.07 (+3.88%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$276.3 million
• Cumulative net flows: $54.71 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$129.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.78 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.82 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• Pentagon prepares second aircraft carrier to deploy to the Middle East (The Wall Street Journal): The Pentagon said a second aircraft carrier strike group is preparing to deploy to the Middle East as the U.S. military readies for a potential attack on Iran.
• Asian stocks scale record high, US jobs lift dollar and yields (Reuters): Asian stocks rose to a record high, while the dollar firmed against most currencies except the yen after a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report dented near-term rate-cut expectations, setting the stage for inflation data on Friday.
• European stocks climb on earnings; treasuries flat (Bloomberg): European stocks climbed on one of the busiest days for company earnings, and U.S. equity futures pointed to gains on Wall Street.