As tariff threat hits bitcoin, 'invisible hands' may amplify swings: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The market story is clear: Bitcoin BTC$67,529.20 and the other major coins are down alongside Nasdaq 100 futures as President Donald Trump's tariff threat against the European nations opposing his takeover of Greenland ramps up geopolitical tensions.

But, under the hood, there's another dynamic, and it involved the invisible hands that make the trading experience seamless. Those hands belong to market makers, the entities that create buy and sell orders in an exchange's order book so that large trades can be executed at stable prices.

Market makers in bitcoin's options market are now in a position where they need to trade in line with the market — buying BTC as it rises and selling as it falls — to keep their overall exposure to price swings neutral. Remember, they make money from the bid-ask spread, and can do so only if their exposure to price swings is constantly hedged.

This process is called gamma exposure hedging, or managing the change in market makers' exposure as bitcoin's price moves. Right now, market makers mostly have negative gamma exposure from $86,000 to $95,000 (check TA section), according to data from Deribit, tracked by Amberdata.

Negative gamma means their risk increases as the price changes, so they buy into strength and sell into weakness to hedge their positions, amplifying the price swings. A similar negative gamma occurred in S&P 500 option last October.

Beyond this dynamic, observers remain focused on geopolitics and the impending Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariff policies.

"Much of the tension is coming from political noise, including President Trump’s barrage of early-2026 headlines regarding military intervention in Venezuela, tariff threats toward Europe and Iran, and renewed efforts to replace Fed Chair Powell," Emir Ibrahim, an analyst at digital asset trading firm Zerocap, said.

A Supreme Court ruling against Trump could create near-term volatility around trade policy, refund liabilities and deficit expectations, Ibrahim said.

In traditional markets, the U.S. 10-year yield has hit a four-month high of 4.37% alongside a weaker dollar and stock futures, pointing to a broad-based weakness in U.S. assets. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • Jan. 20, 7 a.m.: BNB Chain to host an X Spaces session with PancakeSwap, Lista DAO, United Stables, and Venus Protocol.
  • Jan. 20, 6 p.m.: Avalanche to host an AVAX Talk where a "major Avalanche announcement" is being made.
• Macro
  • Jan. 20, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. ADP employment change weekly (Prev. 11.75K)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • Jan. 20: EtherFi to host its first 2026 analyst call, where plans for the year and business updates will be discussed.
• Unlocks
  • No major unlocks scheduled.
• Token Launches
  • Jan. 20: MegaETH (MEGA) token generation event to occur.
  • Jan. 20: Zama (ZAMA) token generation event to occur.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Day 2 of 4: Web3 Hub Davos (Switzerland)

Market Movements

• BTC is down 2.02% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $91,320.96 (24hrs: -1.78%)
• ETH is down 3.52% at $3,105.04 (24hrs: -3.41%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 3.08% at 2,799.17 (24hrs: -2.61%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 5 bps at 2.83%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0066% (7.1876% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.95% at 98.45
• Gold futures are up 2.99% at $4,733.00
• Silver futures are up 7.43% at $95.11
• Nikkei 225 closed down 1.11% at 52,991.10
• Hang Seng closed down 0.29% at 26,487.51
• FTSE is down 1.20% at 10,072.56
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.33% at 5,846.84
• DJIA closed on Friday down 0.17% at 49,359.33
• S&P 500 closed down little changed at 6,940.01
• Nasdaq Composite closed down little changed at 23,515.39
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.15% at 33,090.96
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.54% at 3.344,46
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 5.8 bps at 4.289%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.60% at 6,865.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.94% at 25,191.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 1.46% at 48,826.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.79% (0.19%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03401 (-1.16%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,004 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $39.21
• Total Fees: 2.28 BTC / $212,051
• CME Futures Open Interest: 119,430 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 21.7 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 6.10%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows the market makers' gamma exposure at various bitcoin prices.
• The exposure is mostly negative from $86,000 to $95,000, which means market makers could buy high and sell low, amplifying volatility and trends.
• The gamma exposure is positive at the $90,000 level, which could see market makers do the opposite, arresting volatility.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $241.15 (+0.78%), -4.75% at $229.70 in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $34.31 (+7.25%), -8.16% at $31.51
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.36 (+6.57%), -4.84% at $10.81
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $19.24 (+16.11%), -6.13% at $18.06
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.89 (+4.48%), -4.98% at $17.95
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $13.37 (+5.03%), -7.11% at $12.42
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $16.60 (+1.72%)
• CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $51.06 (+6.42%), -8.07% at $46.94
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $78.61 (+2.62%), -5.50% at $74.29
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $39.01 (+3.47%), -6.95% at $36.30

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $173.71 (+1.64%), -5.69% at $163.82
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $20.33 (unchanged)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $11.00 (+5.43%), -6.18% at $10.32
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.31 (+4.52%), -8.66% at $2.11
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.43 (+2.14%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$394.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $57.8 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.31 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $4.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $12.93 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.23 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• Trump to Hold Meeting on Greenland in Davos (The Wall Street Journal): President Donald Trump plans a Greenland-focused meeting at Davos, keeping tensions with Denmark and Europe in focus.
• Trump threatens 200% tariffs on French wines to get Macron on Board of Peace (Reuters): Trump threatens 200% tariffs on French wines and champagne as he pressures Macron to join a U.S. “Board of Peace” initiative aimed at resolving conflicts around the world.
• Tech index futures, crypto stocks drop as U.S.-Europe trade tensions rise, bitcoin falls (CoinDesk): U.S. tech futures fell before the open as Trump’s Greenland push and fresh tariff threats stoke risk-off sentiment.
• Bitcoin has a 30% chance of falling below $80,000 by late June, options data suggests (CoinDesk): Bitcoin options traders are pricing a ~30% chance of BTC dropping below $80,000 by late June, with heavy put interest at $75,000-$80,000.
• Canada's Carney aims to lead a new global trading order less reliant on the US (Reuters): Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is pitching the country as a leader in a new global trading order less reliant on the U.S., signing a trade deal with China and pursuing smaller “plurilateral” pacts.