Markets fall on Greenland dispute (Barni1/Pixabay)
What to know:
BTC fell to $91,120 after reversing the move to $98,000, tracking a sharp drop in Nasdaq and S&P 500 index futures on renewed U.S.–EU tariff tensions tied to Greenland.
Over $360 million in crypto futures liquidations hit longs hardest; bitcoin 30-day implied volatility rebounded to 42%, and options markets continue to price puts above calls.
Ether and solana dropped more than 3%, DeFi tokens AERO and SKY slid over 5.5% and the memecoin sector lagged, with stability hinging on whether BTC can hold the $85,000–$95,000 range.
Bitcoin BTC$68,770.50 and the wider crypto market took another leg down, with the BTC price reversing all of last week's move to $98,000.
The Asia session spurred most of the selling as prices began to tumble at 01:15 UTC before consolidating at 07:00 UTC.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
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Privacy coins monero XMR$321.94 and dash DASH$36.95 lost 9% and 3% respectively since midnight as trader interest cooled following a barnstorming start to the year.
Tuesday's crypto market selloff mirrors a move in U.S. equity index futures. Futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 fell more than 1.9% since derivatives markets opened on Sunday evening while S&P 500 futures are down by 1.6%.
The negative price action can be attributed to the same jitters that dominated Monday's environment, with the EU and the U.S. threatening each other with tariffs if they can't find a resolution to the Greenland situation.
Haven assets extended rallies, with gold and silver rallying to record highs.
Derivatives positioning
Crypto futures bets worth over $360 million were liquidated by exchanges in 24 hours, with bullish bets accounting for most of the tally.
Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility (IV), represented by the BVIV index, has bounced to 42% from 39.7%, pointing to renewed demand for options, or hedging instruments.
The 30-day IV in the U.S. Treasury notes increased slightly from multi-year lows, but remains considerably lower than in November. A continued rise in bond market volatility could breed risk aversion.
DOGE, ZEC and ADA are leading the decline in futures open interest (OI) across most tokens, indicating capital outflows. OI in BTC futures held steady over 24 hours.
Still, funding rates for most major tokens remain positive, indicating a bias for bullish exposure. Rates for ZEC and TRX are deeply negative, a sign of dominance of bearish short positions.
On Deribit, traders continue to price put options higher than calls in both BTC and ether ETH$1,978.09. That indicates lingering downside fears.
On decentralized platform Derive, traders are pricing a 30% chance of BTC sliding below $80,000.
Token talk
The lower liquidity altcoin market suffered more than bitcoin as even the major cryptocurrencies like ether and solana SOL$85.48 fell more than 3%.
DeFi tokens AERO and SKY were even harder hit by the week's bearish price action, losing more than 5.5% in 24 hours.
The broader altcoin market is now very much depending on bitcoin's next move. If the largest cryptocurrency begins to consolidate between $85,000 and $95,000, altcoins could stabilize, leaving certain sectors to impress.
However, extended volatility, for example a drop through $85,000, would result in carnage for the altcoin sector as liquidity has failed to recover from October's $19 billion liquidation cascade.
McGlone links bitcoin’s downturn to record U.S. market cap-to-GDP levels, low equity volatility and rising gold prices, warning of potential contagion into stocks.
What to know:
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warns that collapsing crypto prices and a potential bitcoin slide toward $10,000 could signal mounting financial stress and foreshadow a U.S. recession.
McGlone argues the post-2008 "buy the dip" era may be ending as crypto weakens, stock market valuations sit near century highs relative to GDP, and equity volatility remains unusually low.
Market analyst Jason Fernandes counters that a drop to $10,000 bitcoin would likely require a severe systemic shock and recession, calling such an outcome a low-probability tail risk compared with a milder reset or consolidation.