Bitcoin ETF rebound needs to be sustained for BTC to benefit: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Narratives change fast in crypto.

Just yesterday, we talked about weak institutional demand for bitcoin BTC$67,284.66, noting net outflows of over $500 million from spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the first two days of the week.

Guess what? On Wednesday, they amassed over $457.3 million, the highest single-day tally in five weeks. That's a trend that needs to continue to power BTC higher. The bull phases earlier this year saw multiple days of above $500 million in net inflows almost every week.

For the time being, the cryptocurrency remains locked in Wednesday's indecisive trading range of $86,000-$90,000, with traders awaiting U.S. inflation data due at 8:30 a.m.

A print softer than the expected 3.1% year-on-year figure could prompt renewed risk-taking. Fed member Christopher Waller said on Wednesday that interest rates remain well above the neutral level, meaning there is scope for the central bank to cut.

After that report, focus will shift to the Bank of Japan's interest-rate decision due late in the day U.S. time, Friday morning in Asia. The central bank is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%. Some observers say that could trigger a rally in the yen, causing risk aversion, although positioning in the FX market suggests low odds of a snap bullish reaction.

XRP is beginning to look increasingly bearish on charts. Veteran trader Peter Brandt called a double-top breakdown in the cryptocurrency, which could see prices fall to $1 or below. It recently changed hands at $1.87.

Ether ETH$1,971.45, the second-largest cryptocurrency, is down over 2% on a 24-hour basis and BNB is trading 1.8% lower. Contrast that with privacy-focused tokens XMR and ZEC, both up 2%. The CoinDesk 20 index was down 1%, while the CoinDesk 80 index was down 3.2%, pointing to weakness in smaller tokens.

In traditional markets, the dollar index rose for a second day, teasing a bull revival. The index hovered at 98.50, while gold dropped to $4,324 after testing the recent resistance zone of $4,340-$4,350. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • Dec. 18, 12:30 p.m.: BNB Chain BNB$597.16 is hosting an end-of-year AMA on X with former Binance Co-founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao ("CZ").
• Macro
  • Dec. 18, 8:15 a.m.: European Central Bank interest-rate decision. Benchmark rate Est. 2.15%.
  • Dec. 18, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Nov. Inflation Rate. Headline YoY Est. 3.1%; Core YoY Est. 3%.
  • Dec. 18, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Jobless Claims. Initial (for week ended Dec. 13) Est. 225K; Continuing (for week ended Dec. 6) Est. 1930K.
  • Dec. 18, 2 p.m.: Argentina Q3 Unemployment Rate (Prev. 7.6%).
  • Dec. 18, 2 p.m.: Mexico central bank interest-rate decision. Benchmark rate Est. 7%.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • Dec. 18: STONfi to host a community call.
  • Dec. 18: IOTA to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session with Dominik Schiener, co-founder and chairman of the IOTA Foundation.
  • Dec. 18: Cardano to host an AMA session with the CEO of the Cardano Foundation, of Emurgo, and other executives in its ecosystem.
• Unlocks
  • No major unlocks.
• Token Launches
  • Dec. 18: VSN$0.05123 to undergo its next quarterly burn.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Dec. 18, 11 a.m.: Bitcoin Treasuries Digital Conference (Virtual)

Market Movements

• BTC is up 1.55% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $87,291.26 (24hrs: +0.39%)
• ETH is up 1.26% at $2,853.16 (24hrs: -2.41%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.96% at 2,671.22 (24hrs: -1.5%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.87%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0007% (-0.8026% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.14% at 98.51
• Gold futures are down 0.39% at $4,356.80
• Silver futures are down 1% at $66.24
• Nikkei 225 closed down 1.03% at 49,001.50
• Hang Seng closed up 0.12% at 25,498.13
• FTSE is up 0.25% at 9,798.54
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.37% at 5,702.83
• DJIA closed on Wednesday down 0.47% at 47,885.97
• S&P 500 closed down 1.16% at 6,721.43
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.81% at 22,693.32
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.04% at 31,250.02
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.36% at 3,058.30
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.131%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.39% at 6,804.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.72% at 25,078.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.12% at 48,298.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.97% (+0.38%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03273 (-0.39%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,049 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $37.29
• Total fees: 2.81 BTC / $244,324
• CME Futures Open Interest: 121,680 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 20.1 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 5.83%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows DOGE's weekly price swings on a log-scale. The log-scale is used when tracking asset prices with extreme price ranges, like DOGE.
• The joke token has breached the upward sloping trendline drawn off 2023 and 2024 lows.
• The breakdown indicates that the bull market is likely over and deeper losses could be seen in coming weeks.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $244.19 (-3.33%), +2.63% at $250.60 in pre-market
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $79.20 (-4.58%), +1.57% at $80.44
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $22.81 (-6.17%), +1.05% at $23.05
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $42.15 (-1.89%), +0.52% at $42.37
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.93 (-7.11%), +1.31% at $10.06
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.96 (-3.79%), +1.31% at $13.13
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $11.48 (-7.88%), +3.02% at $13.98
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $14.03 (-3.20%), +1.13% at $11.61
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $36.51 (-4.82%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.54 (+0.76%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $160.38 (-4.25%), +1.87% at $163.38
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $16.93 (-2.7%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.27 (-4.53%), +1.94% at $9.45
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.87 (-8.78%), +2.14% at $1.91
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.37 (-9.87%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $457.3 million
• Cumulative net flows: $57.71 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$22.4 million
• Cumulative net flows: $12.64 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.16 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• Bitcoin is all over the place ahead of U.S. inflation data (CoinDesk): Wide intraday swings between roughly $86,000 and $90,000 reflect trader caution ahead of November U.S. CPI figures that could reshape expectations for rate cuts and influence broader risk sentiment.
• China says U.S. will only ‘harm itself’ after Washington approves $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan (CNBC): Beijing said the decision violates its core Taiwan stance, warning that backing arms transfers encourages separatist ambitions on the island and heightens risks around the Taiwan Strait rather than deterring conflict.
• JPMorgan’s tokenized dollars are quietly rewiring how Wall Street moves money (CoinDesk): The only cash equivalent options available in crypto are stablecoins, so there’s a need for a bank deposit product for payments on public chains, according to the Wall Street bank.