Ethereum price slipped nearly 6% over the past 24 hours and almost 13% in two days, extending a choppy January pullback. Price briefly dipped below key levels, raising fresh doubts about whether buyers can regain control.
Yet beneath the surface, large holders stepped in aggressively. Roughly $360 million worth of ETH was accumulated by whales near the dip. The rebound case looks tempting, but Smart money (informed traders) is not fully convinced yet.
SponsoredTriangle Pattern And Bullish Divergence Face Off Against Heavy Supply Cluster
Ethereum is trading inside a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. Sellers rejected the price near the upper trendline earlier, around January 14. Now price is testing the lower boundary. But can buyers save the breakdown now?
Momentum throws an important hint. Between November 4 and January 20, Ethereum printed a lower low while RSI formed a higher low. RSI measures momentum by comparing recent gains and losses. This bullish divergence suggests selling pressure is weakening, even as the price tests support.
This kind of signal mattered before. In early January, a bearish RSI divergence preceded the recent drop. Now the opposite setup is forming, hinting at a potential reversal rather than continuation.
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The possible bounce, however, faces a clear obstacle. Cost basis data shows a dense supply cluster between roughly $3,146 and $3,164. About 3.44 million ETH was accumulated in this zone.
Many holders are near breakeven. That often turns the area into strong resistance. Any rebound must clear this cluster to prove strength and turn into a reversal, as the RSI hints.
Sponsored SponsoredWhales Buy the Dip, but Smart Money Waits
Whales are acting with conviction. As Ethereum fell from around 13% (between January 19 and January 21), whale holdings rose from roughly 103.42 million ETH to about 103.71 million ETH. That increase represents close to $360 million in accumulation near current prices. This is not new behavior.
Similar whale buying appeared around January 14, shortly before a sharp bounce. Plus, the Ethereum whales started picking up supply again over the past few hours.
This steady accumulation signals confidence that the downside is limited near current levels. Whales are willing to absorb supply during weakness.
SponsoredSmart money tells a different story.
The smart money index, which tracks informed positioning, remains below its signal line. Smart money typically moves early and aggressively before sustained rallies. In December, when this indicator surged above the signal line, Ethereum rallied about 26% in ten days. A similar move at the end of December preceded a 16% advance into mid-January.
That kind of confirmation is missing now. Smart money appears to be waiting for proof that resistance is cleared. The heavy cost basis cluster above the ETH price likely explains the hesitation. Until supply is absorbed, patience makes sense.
Ethereum Price Levels Reveal The Key Zone
Everything now funnels into a narrow range of levels.
Sponsored SponsoredThe first level to reclaim is $3,050. Ethereum lost this multi-touchpoint support during the latest selloff. A daily close back above it would signal initial stabilization.
Above that, all eyes turn to the $3,160 area. This level has multiple touchpoints and aligns with the cost basis supply cluster. A clean daily close above it would represent roughly a 6% move from current prices. More importantly, it would break heavy resistance and could invite smart money back in. Post that, the reversal setup can take form.
If that happens, momentum could accelerate quickly. A confirmed breakout opens the path toward $3,390, where a broader bullish reversal would take shape.
On the downside, losing the lower triangle support near $2,910 weakens the rebound thesis. A sustained break there exposes $2,610 as the next major support.
Ethereum’s sellers may have won the recent battle, but the war is still on. Whales are already positioning for a bounce. Smart money is waiting for proof. If Ethereum can clear the $3,160 supply wall, hesitation may turn into momentum fast.
