Reports claiming Costco issued a fresh recession warning have racked up a lot of chatter this weekend, but the quoted comments from former CFO Richard Galanti actually date back to a 2023 earnings call.
Galanti made the comments during Costco’s May 2023 third-quarter earnings call. He flagged a shift away from beef toward cheaper proteins, such as canned chicken and tuna. He tied the pattern to past slowdowns in 1999, 2000, and 2008 through 2010.
Where the Costco Quotes Actually Came From
Galanti stepped down as CFO in March 2024 after roughly four decades at the company. Gary Millerchip has held the role since then, and his recent earnings calls have not flagged a similar warning.
Costco management has described member spending as relatively consistent through the Q1 and Q2 fiscal 2026 calls.
Higher-priced meat cuts have outpaced cheaper proteins in growth, which contradicts the trade-down framing spreading on social media.
Why the Recession Narrative Still Resonates
Beef prices in the United States sit at record highs. Ground beef averaged about $6.70 per pound in March 2026. Live cattle traded near $2.58 per pound during the same month.
The US cattle herd has fallen to a 75-year low after sustained drought and rising feed costs. President Donald Trump delayed an executive order this month. It would have eased beef-import limits to reduce prices.
That backdrop makes a recycled 2023 clip feel current, even when the underlying data has shifted.
The pattern echoes another viral macro signal that resurfaced recently. US cardboard box production fell more than 8% in the first quarter of 2026. Drops at that scale have historically preceded a US recession.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs lifted its 12-month US recession probability to 30% in March. The bank cited oil shocks and tighter financial conditions.
Polymarket odds for a US recession by year-end sit near 23%. That level sits well below the panic readings logged earlier this year.
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