Bitcoin’s recent rally has not convinced Benjamin Cowen that the bear market is over. The Into the Cryptoverse founder warns the current move is likely to top within weeks before another decline, with a possible low arriving in October.
His thesis hinges on a pattern that repeated in 2014, 2018, and 2019, when Bitcoin climbed above key moving averages mid-bear market before resuming the downtrend. Time between cycle lows historically runs 140 to 174 days.
Bitcoin Bear Market Still Intact
In a recent video, Cowen said he is keeping his “bear goggles on” despite Bitcoin’s continued strength. He argues the current playbook still tracks past cycles.
“I think this will likely yield a rally that finds a top within the next few weeks and then we come back down to those levels.”
The Bullish Counterargument
Cowen acknowledged several reasons the bear case could be wrong. Bitcoin’s year-to-date return is currently outperforming the average midterm year by a wide margin. The token sits roughly 10% below its yearly open, compared with a typical decline of 30 to 35% at this stage.
It has also reclaimed the bull market support band. Cowen flagged another structural shift.
“Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria.”
Retail interest never returned, and altcoins continued bleeding against Bitcoin throughout the rally. That apathetic peak could mean a different kind of bear market this time.
Why the Pattern Still Points Lower
Past cycles offer the strongest case for staying defensive. In 2014, 2018, and 2019, Bitcoin rallied above the bull market support band before pulling back, with the 200-day moving average serving as resistance.
“If I’m right, it will seem so obvious… If I’m wrong, then by the time you do something that’s different enough, you’re already well off the lows.”
Time between cycle lows is the other signal Cowen tracks. Recent cycles waited roughly 140 to 174 days before printing a new low.
“We’re currently on day 88. So, who’s to know what’ll happen in 3 months.”
Cowen expects the current rally to peak within weeks before retracing toward the bull market support band, with a possible October low. For investors who exited near last year’s peak, his takeaway is direct.
“Anyone who took profits on Bitcoin in Q4 when everyone else was screaming 300K is still doing fine.”
