Bitcoin (BTC) has benefited from the recent ceasefire announcement, with the price rising nearly 4% to over $71,000.
Amid this bounce, multiple on-chain indicators are converging on what analysts describe as an accumulation setup for Bitcoin.
Key Bitcoin Indicators Suggest Smart Money Is Stepping In
CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s Active Address Momentum has dropped to -0.2, signaling a decline in participation. The reading is the most extreme since 2018.
“When we see this collapse in activity, we confirm that the ‘tourists’ — investors who buy on hype and sell in panic — the famous STHs, are no longer present. What remains on the network are long-term holders who are accumulating,” an analyst wrote.
The analyst added that, historically, these periods have often aligned with “most profitable long-term accumulation bases.” In this context, the apparent “silence” on the network signals that the available supply is steadily being absorbed.
“A market characterized by low volatility and low speculative activity is an ideal environment for Smart Money and institutions to accumulate large positions without causing erratic spikes in nominal price,” the post read.
Separately, Rand Group noted that in previous periods when 80% to 90% of Bitcoin capital was underwater, some of the best entry points in years emerged.
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Finally, Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, highlighted that the 720-day Tactical Bull-Bear Sentiment Index (TBBI) has fallen into extreme bearish territory.
The long-term indicator tracks multi-year sentiment cycles and has historically entered this zone when retail exhaustion is at its peak, narratives have turned fully negative, and smart money begins absorbing supply.
“From here, downside still exists, but tends to be more limited. Any further drops are likely to be smaller in magnitude. A sharp move like a -$15K shakeout is possible, the kind that creates one final wave of panic across the market. But structurally, this looks like late-stage fear,” Wedson said.
Together, the three indicators paint a picture of a market where panic has largely run its course. Whether the shift arrives in weeks or months remains to be seen.
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