Here’s What’s Needed For The Bitcoin Rally To Resume

Keshav Verma

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 8:34 am

3 mins read

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Here’s what the current Bitcoin rally might require for a resumption based on the trend that a similar rally back in April 2019 followed.

Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score Has Declined Recently

As per the latest weekly report from Glassnode, the accumulation trend score shows that investors have been distributing Bitcoin recently. The “accumulation trend score” is an indicator that measures whether investors have been buying or selling within the last 30 days.

For the calculation of the score, the metric accounts for both the aggregate balance changes in the wallets of the investors and the size of their wallets. The indicator puts a higher weightage on large entities like whales and institutional investors.

Thus, whenever the indicator’s value is close to 1, it means large entities like these are accumulating right now (or alternatively, a huge number of small investors are accumulating). On the other hand, values of the score near zero imply large entities are distributing currently, or more simply, they are just not accumulating.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) Bitcoin accumulation trend score over the past few years:

Looks like the 7-day MA value of the metric has fallen in recent days | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 7, 2023

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin accumulation trend score has recently declined in value as the rally has gone on and has assumed distribution values (colored in shades of red/orange and marked with a ‘D’ under the curve).

The indicator’s value is now below 0.25, which means that large entities have been participating in a decent amount of selling in recent days, taking advantage of the current profit-taking opportunity.

A rally that the current one is reminiscent of is the April 2019 price surge, which was also a rally that took Bitcoin out of the bottom discovery phase of the bear market of that cycle.

Just like now, the April 2019 rally also saw the accumulation trend score show distribution values in the initial leg up out of the bottom zone. This selling, however, wasn’t enough to stop the rally back then, and it seems that before long, the distribution was exhausted as the indicator surged to accumulation values again.

This fresh accumulation (marked in shades of purple) helped the price of the cryptocurrency resume the sharp surge, as highlighted in the chart with the symbol ‘A.’

If the current Bitcoin rally really is about to go down the same route as its predecessor in April 2019, then it would appear that large entities will need to show some continued accumulation in order to outweigh the distribution and help the presently halted rally to push on.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $21,800, down 5% in the last week.

The value of BTC seems to have gone stale since the decline earlier in the week | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Traxer on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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