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Markets are quiet and uneasy. Bitcoin prices have pulled back, and big holders are keeping a cool face while the charts wobble. Reports note that one outspoken investor frames the market in stark terms: it either fails completely or becomes far more valuable than people now imagine.
Saylor’s Binary Bet
According to Michael Saylor, Bitcoin has only two plausible final outcomes: worthless, or worth $1 million per coin. That is not a quick trading idea. It’s a long-running view about scarcity and demand.
Saylor argues that a fixed supply paired with growing institutional buying and broader custody tools makes a future of massive price gains possible. He points to more banks, more spot ETFs and bigger corporate allocations as proof that demand has matured.
If it’s not going to zero, it’s going to a million. $BTC
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 20, 2026
A Warning From The Other Side
Reports note that not everyone agrees. Mike McGlone of Bloomberg has sketched a darker path, one where price pressure and macro shocks could push values much lower — even toward $10,000.
That view is rooted in history: markets can fall a long way before confidence returns. Short-term moves can be savage. Longer swings can be slower to recover. Both views are true on their own terms, because they answer different questions about time and risk.
Balance Sheet And Funding
Based on reports, the firm backing Saylor’s posture holds a very large stake: 717,131 BTC bought at an average cost of $76,027 a coin. That position is underwater for now. Still, financing choices matter. Strategy relies on equity, convertible notes, and preferred shares to meet cash needs.
Arkham Intelligence has mapped out that preferred dividends are optional and redemptions are not automatic, which lowers the chance of forced sales right away. That setup buys time, though it does not erase exposure if prices stay low for a long stretch.
SAYLOR IS UNDERWATER. BUT WILL HE SELL BTC?
Saylor is over 10% underwater from his average purchase price. But what could actually force him to sell Bitcoin?
Here’s an explainer of how, when and why Strategy might be forced to sell BTC. pic.twitter.com/uKbJ3ivO54
— Arkham (@arkham) February 20, 2026
Supply, Demand And The Big Numbers
Saylor’s $1 million projection is driven by a supply argument: there are only 21 million coins. If enough institutions and treasuries keep buying, the math pushes the price up.
He has said that with a particular share of total coins held by his firm, values could move into the millions, and he has sketched an even higher, $10 million possibility under stronger concentration scenarios.
Those are not forecasts you can treat like short-term targets. They are conditional models — possible only if adoption, regulation and market behavior all line up for years.
The path forward is not easy. Bitcoin could crawl higher, stumble and trade in narrow ranges for years, or shoot up as new buyers enter. Politics, regulation and global liquidity will shape which route unfolds. Institutional entry has changed the market structure, but it has not removed the risk of big drawdowns.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView
