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Bitcoin has been trading in a tight band lately. Over the last 24 hours it dipped a bit, but it still sits between $108,000 and $110,000. According to market data, that range has held firm even as volatility showed up back in January and April.
Lagging Money Supply Signal
According to analyst Kyle Chassé, Bitcoin’s price tends to follow global M2 money supply with a 90-day lag. He matched daily closes on the Bitstamp exchange against world M2 data shifted three months back. That overlay shows that when global liquidity climbs, Bitcoin often rises after roughly 90 days.
Short-Term Price Moves
Bitcoin first spiked above $109,000 this past January. Then it fell below $75,000 in early April. Since that dip, it’s climbed back toward the $110,000 mark. Based on the lagged money-supply trend, it feels like a pause in a bigger up-and-down cycle rather than the end of a rally.
Growing Money Figures
Global M2 stood at about $98 trillion in early 2023. It rose to just over $108 trillion by early 2024. Then growth slowed, and Bitcoin spent some time below $80,000. Lately, M2 is past $111 trillion. Based on those numbers, reports say Bitcoin’s upside could stretch into mid-2025 as liquidity stays strong.
Bitcoin is coded to $400K. pic.twitter.com/6BbogYw1UX
— Kyle Chassé / DD🐸 (@kyle_chasse) May 27, 2025
Bullish Price Targets
Chassé projects Bitcoin may hit $400,000 if global M2 keeps growing. It is “coded“, he says. That means roughly a 270% jump from the current $108,000 level. Based on this model, investors watching liquidity trends might see big gains, though it won’t be smooth.
Other experts point out that money supply isn’t the only driver. Real interest rates, policy shifts and on-chain signals can speed up or slow down moves. If central banks turn hawkish, for example, higher rates could undercut Bitcoin even if M2 ticks up.
What Comes Next
Based on reports from Global Macro Investor, global M2 leads Bitcoin by about 12 weeks. That gives traders a rough timetable. If M2 growth really slows in coming months, Bitcoin may hold its ground or correct first. On the flip side, any fresh liquidity surge could set the stage for new highs.
In the end, the link between money supply and Bitcoin price is a useful guide. It won’t tell you exactly when to buy or sell. But for anyone tracking big-picture trends, knowing that cash growth can flow into crypto after a three-month delay could help time decisions better.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
