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According to a recent X post by seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Ethereum (ETH) may have already gone through its capitulation phase for this market cycle. Notably, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is down more than 55% over the past year.
Is Ethereum Capitulation Over?
Unlike Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins such as XRP, Solana (SOL), and SUI, Ethereum has endured a challenging two-year stretch. The cryptocurrency was trading at $1,892 exactly two years ago, on April 11, 2023, and is now priced around $1,560 – over 17% lower.
In contrast, BTC has surged from approximately $41,000 two years ago to $82,127 at the time of writing – an increase of nearly 100%. While SOL currently trades below its April 2023 price, unlike ETH, it did manage to reach a new all-time high (ATH) of $293 earlier this year in January.
Understandably, sentiment toward ETH – among both retail and institutional investors – is hovering near all-time lows. However, Martinez believes that “smart money” may be accumulating at current levels, anticipating a near-term reversal.
The analyst pointed out that Ethereum’s Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow has recently dropped below one million. Martinez added:
This historically indicates a macro bottom zone, meaning $ETH might be undervalued and long-term holders are less inclined to sell. It also suggests: sentiment is low, capitulation may have occurred, smart money might be accumulating.
For the uninitiated, Ethereum’s Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow is an on-chain metric that compares the market cap to the dormancy – the average age of ETH being moved – adjusted for unique entities instead of raw addresses. The metric helps identify whether the market is overheated or undervalued by tracking the behavior of long-term holders.
If ETH follows historical trends, it may be approaching a momentum reversal. In a separate X post, crypto trader Merlijn The Trader suggested that Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is nearing a peak, which could shift capital into altcoins and trigger a short-term rally.
At the time of writing, BTC.D stands around 63.5%. A potential pivot by the US Federal Reserve toward quantitative easing (QE) could inject fresh liquidity into the market, possibly sparking a mini altcoin rally.
ETH Demands Cautious Optimism
While there are multiple signs that ETH may be close to bottoming out, some indicators suggest that there could be continued weakness for the digital asset before any meaningful momentum shift.
In a recent analysis, Martinez warned that ETH could fall as low as $1,200 if the current sell-off continues. Further, ongoing capital outflows from US-based spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETF) remain a concern for the asset’s short-term outlook.
That said, crypto analyst NotWojak recently noted that ETH may be on the verge of a breakout, with a potential upside target of $1,835. At press time, ETH is trading at $1,557, down 2.3% in the past 24 hours.
