Reason to trust
How Our News is Made
Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Ad discliamer
Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.
November has often been a standout month for Bitcoin, with historical data indicating an impressive average price jump of 43%. This would propel Bitcoin to around $48,000. But with October already showing a significant price increase, the question arises: Will Bitcoin continue its bullish trend, or is a retrace on the horizon?
November Monthly Returns
November has been particularly bullish for Bitcoin over time, with an average of 43% of price increases over the years. If this trend holds true for this year, we might see Bitcoin touching $48,000.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To Reach $170,000 in 2025 – Mathematical Model Predicts
However, it’s worth noting that this very high average is significantly influenced by the extreme 453% surge in 2013. If we exclude this outlier, the average settles around 11.54% This leads to a more conservative forecast, pointing to a potential rise to around $38,000.
Bitcoin monthly returns over the years. Source: intothecryptoverse
Diving deeper into historical data, 8 of the past 13 years have shown price increases in November, making another increase this month seem plausible. Yet, a closer look reveals that 4 of the last 5 times in November there was a price dip.
In 2022, the FTX collapse played a pivotal role and 2021 marked the peak for Bitcoin, suggesting that these decreases might be outliers rather than indicative of a changing trend.
For a closer comparison, 2019 stands out as it too was a pre-halving year, just like 2023. That year, after a promising October, Bitcoin saw a 17% dip in November, which would equate to a value of $28,000 if repeated this year.
Bitcoin Price Action In 2023
Through 2023, Bitcoin has demonstrated a recurring behavior following significant price increases of more than 20%. Typically, these surges have been followed by consolidation periods, and subsequently, a retrace to at least half of the initial increase.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Season: Leading The Charge In The Crypto Market
Take January, for instance. Bitcoin’s price increased from $16,500 to $24,000, only to decline to $20,000 by March – a retrace of 60% from the initial increase.
One particularly extreme example was in August when Bitcoin retraced the entirety of a prior 20% rise.
Bitcoin price action in 2023. Source: BTCUSD from TradingView
It’s noteworthy that these retraces haven’t always been immediate. After the rise in March, it wasn’t until June – a span of three months – that the price saw a 50% retrace. On average, this year’s price retraces have taken between 1 to 3 months to manifest post-rise.
Furthermore, before any retrace occurs, there’s still room for additional upside. To illustrate, after the aforementioned March rise, Bitcoin experienced an additional 10% increase before eventually retracing the initial surge.
Potential Scenarios For November
- Very bullish scenario: Bitcoin rises by 10-20%, potentially reaching up to $42,000.
- Bullish scenario: Bitcoin rises by 1-10%, potentially reaching up to $38,000.
- Bearish scenario: Bitcoin decreases by 10%, dropping to around $31,000. This would mean a 50% retrace of the surge in October.
- Very bearish scenario: Bitcoin decreases by 20%, dropping to around $28,000. This would mean a 100% retrace of the surge in October.
